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    Packers' QB & Playoffs (11/11/2013)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
    By John Ewing
    What quarterback gives the Packers the best chance to make the playoffs? Should Green Bay consider calling up Tim Tebow?


     
    The Packers will have their third different starting quarterback in as many weeks Sunday when Scott Tolzien makes his first start ever on the road against the New York Giants.
     
    With limited options at quarterback we simulated the rest of the season to see who gives the Packers the best odds of making the playoffs.
     
    Note: The Packers were scheduled to workout Matt Flynn Monday to determine the health of the elbow on Flynn’s passing arm. We do not believe Flynn is healthy enough to start so we did not include him in this simulation.
     
    Aaron Rodgers
    Rodgers is out indefinitely with a fractured collarbone. Green Bay hopes to get him back by the end of this month. But how would the team look with a healthy Rodgers taking every remaining snap for the team?
    • Projected Stats: 2,001.7 passing yards, 14.7 TDs, and 5.7 INTs
    • Packers would be favored in every remaining game
    • Packers Playoff Probability: 38.7%
    Scott Tolzien
    The third year player out of Wisconsin completed 61.5% of his passes Sunday for 280 yards, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions. Here are our projections for the rest of the season if Aaron Rodgers is done for the year and Scott Tolzien starts every remaining game: 
    • Projected Stats: 1,471.3 passing yards, 12.3 TDs, and 5.9 INTs
    • Packers would be favored in three remaining games (vs. MIN, vs. ATL, and vs. PIT)
    • Packers Playoff Probability: 15.6%
    Tim Tebow
    Yes, Tebow! Why not? He might be too busy pursuing his new career in broadcasting.
    • Projected Stats: 1,320.3 passing yards, 8.1 TDs, 5.2 INTs, 283.0 rushing yards and 3.0 TDs
    • Packers would be favored in two remaining games (vs. MIN and vs. ATL)
    • Packers Playoff Probability: 11.1%
    Josh Freeman
    Rumor had it that the Packers were interested in acquiring Freeman back in October.
    • Projected Stats: 1,658.9 passing yards, 11.0 TDs, and 6.8 INTs
    • Packers would be favored in three remaining games (vs. MIN, vs. ATL, and vs. PIT)
    • Packers Playoff Probability: 16.4%
    Realistically, if the Packers are going to have any shot at making the playoffs they need Aaron Rodgers to return sooner rather than later. Green Bay’s playoff odds might be in better shape if the Packers had acquired Freeman a month ago but the unproven Tolzien is not a significant dropoff from Freeman. And Tebow, well it might be wise to follow-up on that college football television job. 
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