Optimal Daily Fantasy Week 4

New for the 2013 football season, we will be providing a significant amount of weekly daily fantasy content for the NFL, including dollars-per-fantasy-point rankings for every player (both FanDuel and DraftDay), an optimized lineup for public FanDuel and DraftDay leagues and in-depth analysis and strategy advice from Daily Fantasy expert (and poker player and quantitative public opinion researcher) Brian Harnisch. Below, Brian provides his weekly column, which will include optimized lineups, on Friday mornings throughout the NFL season.

Week 3 didn’t go as well as it could have but it wasn’t a complete loss. I entered a huge variety of lineups on DraftDay and managed to make it out alive with only a small loss, whereas I again got beat up on FanDuel playing a lot of lineups with Lynch, Roberts, and Myers. While playing the Seattle defense and Lynch did make watching the game fairly enjoyable, anyone using Lynch in their optimized lineups felt the pain of Lynch getting stopped literally inches from the goal line… twice. While that hurt and could be blamed for a number of losses in 50/50 and double-up formats, it’s hard not to look at Kaepernick’s abysmal performance and wonder what could have been (sweet 4 points, bro). After last night’s TNF performance it looks like this could have just been a glitch as he found his rhythm with Vernon Davis back, but I will be cautious playing him moving forward until I see some consistency.

Taking a quick look ahead to Week 5, DraftDay has invited me to be one of 16 experts in their second Expert Challenge of the season. I hadn’t played any bracket format contests prior to this year, but I am really enjoying them so far. The only way to get into the Week 5 Expert Challenge is to qualify THIS WEEK, so make sure you enter a qualifier and give yourself a shot at a piece of the $1,500 prize pool and the chance to play against ME (ok but seriously you could get to play and beat Kay Adams, Jenn Sterger, Alexandria Schlereth, and a bunch of other fantasy experts). Make sure you get signed up for a qualifier in Week 4; it’s the only way in. 

Listed below are our optimized lineups for Week 4 for both FanDuel and DraftDay standard formats. Optimized lineups for DraftDay are presented for both RB and WR flex roster spots. As I point out every week, these lineups represent the mathematically ideal combination of players that maximize projected fantasy points while staying under salary cap (utilizing PredictionMachine.com’s Week 4 fantasy projections). In my experience, these optimized lineups perform best in 50/50 or double-up type formats. At the very bottom of this article you will find a list of all players with their projected values for both FanDuel and DraftDay along with respective salaries. I always preach diversification in lineups, and if you see a lineup that may be too stacked for one team (see DraftDay’s WR Flex lineup below) make sure to consult this list for players in the same salary range that you might be able to swap out while staying under cap. When building your own lineups a great place to start is with some high value players identified in the Week 4 projections, which will free up cap space on your roster to play the studs you want. 

Optimized Lineup - FanDuel - $60k (Standard)

Pos. Player Game Salary Proj. Points Game Day
QB Peyton Manning PHI@DEN $9,900 27.12 Sun
TE Jimmy Graham MIA@NO $8,400 17.44 Mon
RB Joique Bell CHI@DET $7,400 16.93 Sun
RB Bilal Powell NYJ@TEN $4,700 15.21 Sun
WR Pierre Garcon WAS@OAK $7,000 14.87 Sun
DEF Indianapolis Colts IND@JAC $5,000 13.11 Sun
WR Antonio Brown PIT@MIN $6,500 12.95 Sun
WR Stevie Johnson BAL@BUF $6,000 12.57 Sun
K Dan Bailey DAL@SD $5,100 9.68 Sun
      $60,000 139.87  

Optimized Lineup - Draftday - $100k - WR Flex

Pos. Player Game Salary Proj. Points Game Day
QB Peyton Manning PHI@DEN $20,000 33.46 Sun
WR Demaryius Thomas PHI@DEN $15,250 19.48 Sun
RB Joique Bell CHI@DET $11,450 19.40 Sun
WR Wes Welker PHI@DEN $13,050 17.65 Sun
RB Bilal Powell NYJ@TEN $9,600 16.80 Sun
WR Eric Decker PHI@DEN $9,750 15.46 Sun
TE Antonio Gates DAL@SD $9,300 15.27 Sun
DEF Indianapolis Colts IND@JAC $5,500 13.11 Sun
K Dan Bailey DAL@SD $5,800 9.68 Sun
      $99,700 160.29  

Optimized Lineup - Draftday - $100k - RB Flex

Pos. Player Game Salary Proj. Points Game Day
QB Peyton Manning PHI@DEN $20,000 33.46 Sun
RB Jamaal Charles NYG@KC $17,850 22.73 Sun
RB Joique Bell CHI@DET $11,450 19.40 Sun
WR Wes Welker PHI@DEN $13,050 17.65 Sun
RB Bilal Powell NYJ@TEN $9,600 16.80 Sun
TE Antonio Gates DAL@SD $9,300 15.27 Sun
WR Miles Austin DAL@SD $7,650 13.88 Sun
DEF Indianapolis Colts IND@JAC $5,500 13.11 Sun
K David Akers CHI@DET $5,500 9.32 Sun
      $99,900 161.61  

A persistent theme across all optimized lineups, for both websites, is the inclusion of the top priced Manning ($9,900 on FanDuel, $20,000 on DraftDay). Even with the steep price tag Manning proves to be a significant value play and a nice spot to build a roster around; he is PredictionMachine.com highest projected player for week 4 (27pts on FanDuel, 34pts on DraftDay).  After 50,000 simulations of every game this weekend, the Predictalator finds that on average Denver puts up a huge 35.4pts. That means that we not only find Manning putting up a lot of points, but spreading that wealth around between Thomas, Welker, and Decker like he did on MNF against the Raiders. In the DraftDay WR Flex lineup above you will see that the mathematically optimized team actually includes all of these players. While I wanted to preserve and present the actual optimized lineup as presented above you might want to diversify your lineup a little bit, even though a big Denver stack might provide you with a little entertainment. Below you will find three alternative lineups that only allow Manning and one of these three receivers, but it’s hard for me not to go with the Manning/Demaryius lineup. If you are looking to build a lineup around a Broncos WR, Decker provides the most value on DraftDay (15.5pts, $631/pt) while Demaryius does on FanDuel (17pts, $493/pt).

Other things to point out in the optimized lineups: Jamaal Charles appears in the DraftDay RB Flex lineup, as well as some of the additional lineups below. While we’re high on Charles this week after coming of a great performance against Philadelphia we want you to recognize that he is a high risk play and is not currently playing at 100%. He is an expensive player, so if you would like to swap in another back you should be able to stay under cap playing anyone except Adrian Peterson, who costs a bit more on both sites. You will see again that we find a lot of value in both Joique Bell and Bilal Powell. For Bell one might be concerned with the impact of Bush’s return on Bell’s performance, but with Bush being less than 100%, Broyles less than 100%, Nate “The Pizza Man” Burleson out indefinitely, along with Tillman and Melton injuries, we still see Bell getting a lot of work in both the passing game and goal line carries. Short version: Don’t worry about Bush returning. For Powell, Ivory again missed practice on Thursday with a hamstring issue; Powell should see a significant amount of work this week and you should feel ok rostering him as he is our highest value back on FanDuel (15pts, $309/pt) and second on DraftDay (16.8pts, $572/pt).

Just For Kicks: Dan Bailey is our highest projected kicker for week 4 at 9.7pts. He is decently priced on both sites and you have a ton of options if you would like to rotate a handful of kickers throughout your lineups and reduce some of your kicker-induced variance.

As always, feel free to send me questions on twitter @brian_harnisch and I’ll do my best to get back to you before kickoff. 

Update
Projections and optimized lineups have been updated to account for current injury reports, including Miles Austin out. Austin was originally included in our DraftDay RB Flex Optimized lineup. A new optimized lineup for this format has been added immediately following the article, as well as re-optimized lineups for both FanDuel's $60k standard format and DraftDays WR Flex lineup. While Austin was not included in these other lineups, his absence gives Jason Witten a roughly 3pt boost which results in incorporation into these optimized lineups. The original optimized continue to be great lineups, but also consider these alternative lineups that incorporate Witten.

Optimized Lineup - FanDuel - $60k - Alternate 

Pos. Player Game Salary Proj. Points Game Day
QB Peyton Manning PHI@DEN $9,900 27.12 Sun
WR Julio Jones NE@ATL $8,400 17.11 Sun
RB Joique Bell CHI@DET $7,400 16.93 Sun
RB Bilal Powell NYJ@TEN $4,700 15.21 Sun
WR Pierre Garcon WAS@OAK $7,000 14.87 Sun
TE Jason Witten DAL@SD $6,500 13.40 Sun
DEF Indianapolis Colts IND@JAC $5,000 13.00 Sun
WR Stevie Johnson BAL@BUF $6,000 12.57 Sun
K Dan Bailey DAL@SD $5,100 9.66 Sun
      $60,000 139.86  

Optimized Lineup - Draftday - $100k - WR Flex - Alternate Lineup

Pos. Player Game Salary Proj. Points Game Day
QB Peyton Manning PHI@DEN $20,000 33.46 Sun
WR Demaryius Thomas PHI@DEN $15,250 19.48 Sun
RB Joique Bell CHI@DET $11,450 19.40 Sun
WR Wes Welker PHI@DEN $13,050 17.65 Sun
RB Bilal Powell NYJ@TEN $9,600 16.80 Sun
TE Jason Witten DAL@SD $10,450 16.37 Sun
WR Mike Williams ARI@TB $8,750 14.56 Sun
DEF Indianapolis Colts IND@JAC $5,500 13.00 Sun
K Dan Bailey DAL@SD $5,800 9.66 Sun
      $99,850 160.37  

Optimized Lineup - Draftday - $100k - RB Flex - Excluding Miles Austin

Pos. Player Game Salary Proj. Points Game Day
QB Peyton Manning PHI@DEN $20,000 33.46 Sun
RB Jamaal Charles NYG@KC $17,850 22.73 Sun
RB Joique Bell CHI@DET $11,450 19.40 Sun
RB Bilal Powell NYJ@TEN $9,600 16.80 Sun
TE Jason Witten DAL@SD $10,450 16.37 Sun
WR Eric Decker PHI@DEN $9,750 15.46 Sun
WR Mike Williams ARI@TB $8,750 14.56 Sun
DEF Indianapolis Colts IND@JAC $5,500 13.00 Sun
K Dan Bailey DAL@SD $5,800 9.66 Sun
      $99,150 161.42  

Optimized Lineup - FanDuel - $55k (Expert)

Pos. Player Game Salary Proj. Points Game Day
QB Peyton Manning PHI@DEN $9,900 27.12 Sun
RB Bilal Powell NYJ@TEN $4,700 15.21 Sun
WR Pierre Garcon WAS@OAK $7,000 14.87 Sun
DEF Indianapolis Colts IND@JAC $5,000 13.11 Sun
WR Antonio Brown PIT@MIN $6,500 12.95 Sun
TE Antonio Gates DAL@SD $6,200 12.85 Sun
WR Stevie Johnson BAL@BUF $6,000 12.57 Sun
RB Jason Snelling NE@ATL $4,500 11.29 Sun
K Dan Bailey DAL@SD $5,100 9.68 Sun
      $54,900 129.65  

Optimized Lineup - FanDuel - $65k (Beginner)

Pos. Player Game Salary Proj. Points Game Day
QB Peyton Manning PHI@DEN $9,900 27.12 Sun
TE Jimmy Graham MIA@NO $8,400 17.44 Mon
WR Julio Jones NE@ATL $8,400 17.11 Sun
WR Demaryius Thomas PHI@DEN $8,400 17.04 Sun
RB Joique Bell CHI@DET $7,400 16.93 Sun
RB Bilal Powell NYJ@TEN $4,700 15.21 Sun
WR Pierre Garcon WAS@OAK $7,000 14.87 Sun
DEF Indianapolis Colts IND@JAC $5,000 13.11 Sun
K Dan Bailey DAL@SD $5,100 9.68 Sun
      $64,300 148.50  

Optimized Lineup - FanDuel - $60k (Standard) - Sunday Only

Pos. Player Game Salary Proj. Points Game Day
QB Peyton Manning PHI@DEN $9,900 27.12 Sun
WR Julio Jones NE@ATL $8,400 17.11 Sun
RB Joique Bell CHI@DET $7,400 16.93 Sun
RB Bilal Powell NYJ@TEN $4,700 15.21 Sun
WR Pierre Garcon WAS@OAK $7,000 14.87 Sun
DEF Indianapolis Colts IND@JAC $5,000 13.11 Sun
TE Antonio Gates DAL@SD $6,200 12.85 Sun
WR Stevie Johnson BAL@BUF $6,000 12.57 Sun
K Dan Bailey DAL@SD $5,100 9.68 Sun
      $59,700 139.44  

Optimized Lineup - FanDuel - $65k (Beginner) - Sunday Only

Pos. Player Game Salary Proj. Points Game Day
QB Peyton Manning PHI@DEN $9,900 27.12 Sun
RB Jamaal Charles NYG@KC $9,500 20.35 Sun
WR Julio Jones NE@ATL $8,400 17.11 Sun
WR Demaryius Thomas PHI@DEN $8,400 17.04 Sun
RB Bilal Powell NYJ@TEN $4,700 15.21 Sun
WR Pierre Garcon WAS@OAK $7,000 14.87 Sun
TE Rob Gronkowski NE@ATL $6,900 13.22 Sun
DEF Indianapolis Colts IND@JAC $5,000 13.11 Sun
K Dan Bailey DAL@SD $5,100 9.68 Sun
      $64,900 147.70  

Optimized Lineup - Draftday - $100k - WR Flex - Manning/Demaryius

Pos. Player Game Salary Proj. Points Game Day
QB Peyton Manning PHI@DEN $20,000 33.46 Sun
WR Demaryius Thomas PHI@DEN $15,250 19.48 Sun
RB Joique Bell CHI@DET $11,450 19.40 Sun
WR Pierre Garcon WAS@OAK $13,900 18.12 Sun
RB Bilal Powell NYJ@TEN $9,600 16.80 Sun
TE Antonio Gates DAL@SD $9,300 15.27 Sun
WR Mike Williams ARI@TB $8,750 14.56 Sun
DEF Indianapolis Colts IND@JAC $5,500 13.11 Sun
K Dan Bailey DAL@SD $5,800 9.68 Sun
      $99,550 159.87  

Optimized Lineup - Draftday - $100k - WR Flex - Manning/Welker

Pos. Player Game Salary Proj. Points Game Day
QB Peyton Manning PHI@DEN $20,000 33.46 Sun
WR Wes Welker PHI@DEN $13,050 17.65 Sun
RB Jamaal Charles NYG@KC $17,850 22.73 Sun
RB Joique Bell CHI@DET $11,450 19.40 Sun
TE Antonio Gates DAL@SD $9,300 15.27 Sun
WR Mike Williams ARI@TB $8,750 14.56 Sun
WR Miles Austin DAL@SD $7,650 13.88 Sun
DEF Indianapolis Colts IND@JAC $5,500 13.11 Sun
K Dan Bailey DAL@SD $5,800 9.68 Sun
      $99,350 159.73  

Optimized Lineup - Draftday - $100k - WR Flex - Manning/Decker

Pos. Player Game Salary Proj. Points Game Day
QB Peyton Manning PHI@DEN $20,000 33.46 Sun
WR Eric Decker PHI@DEN $9,750 15.46 Sun
RB Jamaal Charles NYG@KC $17,850 22.73 Sun
RB Joique Bell CHI@DET $11,450 19.40 Sun
WR Vincent Jackson ARI@TB $12,250 16.79 Sun
TE Antonio Gates DAL@SD $9,300 15.27 Sun
WR Miles Austin DAL@SD $7,650 13.88 Sun
DEF Indianapolis Colts IND@JAC $5,500 13.11 Sun
K Dan Bailey DAL@SD $5,800 9.68 Sun
      $99,550 159.77  

Week 4 All Players

Name Pos. Team Matchup FD Proj. FD$ DD Proj. DD$
Peyton Manning QB DEN PHI@DEN 27.12 $9,900 33.46 $20,000
Robert Griffin III QB WAS WAS@OAK 21.54 $8,500 24.86 $15,350
Tony Romo QB DAL DAL@SD 20.35 $8,200 23.91 $16,300
Drew Brees QB NO MIA@NO 20.35 $9,700 23.66 $18,900
Matthew Stafford QB DET CHI@DET 20.44 $8,700 23.35 $17,250
Tom Brady QB NE NE@ATL 18.72 $8,500 22.11 $16,350
Sam Bradford QB STL SF@STL 19.08 $7,200 21.94 $11,500
Matt Ryan QB ATL NE@ATL 18.60 $9,000 21.55 $17,050
Andrew Luck QB IND IND@JAC 18.84 $8,600 21.52 $15,750
Philip Rivers QB SD DAL@SD 18.05 $6,900 21.22 $14,050
Colin Kaepernick QB SF SF@STL 18.64 $8,800 20.48 $15,150
Michael Vick QB PHI PHI@DEN 18.59 $9,200 20.40 $17,850
Terrelle Pryor QB OAK WAS@OAK 18.41 $6,300 20.17 $14,250
Alex Smith QB KC NYG@KC 17.93 $6,800 19.95 $13,150
EJ Manuel QB BUF BAL@BUF 17.04 $6,200 19.26 $11,800
Jay Cutler QB CHI CHI@DET 16.60 $7,800 18.79 $13,250
Ben Roethlisberger QB PIT PIT@MIN 16.69 $7,000 18.77 $13,650
Russell Wilson QB SEA SEA@HOU 16.33 $8,400 18.63 $14,550
Andy Dalton QB CIN CIN@CLE 15.89 $8,000 17.86 $12,800
Joe Flacco QB BAL BAL@BUF 15.57 $6,900 17.68 $10,800
Ryan Tannehill QB MIA MIA@NO 14.88 $6,300 16.29 $12,850
Brian Hoyer QB CLE CIN@CLE 13.72 $5,800 15.23 $9,500
Mike Glennon QB TB ARI@TB 13.42 $5,000 14.92 $0
Carson Palmer QB ARI ARI@TB 13.62 $6,600 14.83 $12,550
Eli Manning QB NYG NYG@KC 13.35 $7,100 14.69 $13,250
Geno Smith QB NYJ NYJ@TEN 14.13 $6,900 14.66 $11,800
Jake Locker QB TEN NYJ@TEN 13.13 $6,700 14.54 $12,750
Blaine Gabbert QB JAC IND@JAC 11.82 $5,000 12.43 $7,400
Matt Cassel QB MIN PIT@MIN 11.41 $5,000 12.39 $6,000
Matt Schaub QB HOU SEA@HOU 10.68 $6,700 11.99 $11,600
Jamaal Charles RB KC NYG@KC 20.35 $9,500 22.73 $17,850
Matt Forte RB CHI CHI@DET 18.10 $8,500 20.75 $16,100
Adrian Peterson RB MIN PIT@MIN 18.05 $9,600 19.69 $18,400
Joique Bell RB DET CHI@DET 16.93 $7,400 19.40 $11,450
DeMarco Murray RB DAL DAL@SD 17.01 $7,900 19.28 $14,600
Reggie Bush RB DET CHI@DET 15.85 $8,500 18.07 $13,550
Bilal Powell RB NYJ NYJ@TEN 15.21 $4,700 16.80 $9,600
Trent Richardson RB IND IND@JAC 15.25 $8,000 16.49 $13,450
LeSean McCoy RB PHI PHI@DEN 15.23 $9,300 16.34 $18,500
Doug Martin RB TB ARI@TB 15.19 $8,700 16.30 $14,450
Marshawn Lynch RB SEA SEA@HOU 15.08 $8,600 16.24 $14,650
Ray Rice RB BAL BAL@BUF 14.10 $8,100 15.88 $13,050
Alfred Morris RB WAS WAS@OAK 15.05 $8,300 15.50 $12,350
Darren McFadden RB OAK WAS@OAK 14.10 $7,300 15.23 $12,450
Fred Jackson RB BUF BAL@BUF 13.24 $6,200 15.14 $9,750
Arian Foster RB HOU SEA@HOU 13.37 $8,300 14.40 $11,600
Darren Sproles RB NO MIA@NO 12.01 $7,000 14.22 $10,850
Frank Gore RB SF SF@STL 12.81 $6,700 13.73 $9,000
C.J. Spiller RB BUF BAL@BUF 12.14 $8,200 13.61 $11,350
Jason Snelling RB ATL NE@ATL 11.29 $4,500 12.59 $8,400
Pierre Thomas RB NO MIA@NO 10.82 $5,400 12.46 $7,200
Knowshon Moreno RB DEN PHI@DEN 11.22 $7,000 12.17 $12,650
Chris Johnson RB TEN NYJ@TEN 11.44 $7,400 11.78 $9,700
Giovani Bernard RB CIN CIN@CLE 10.35 $6,400 11.41 $10,550
Danny Woodhead RB SD DAL@SD 8.88 $5,700 11.19 $7,200
Daryl Richardson RB STL SF@STL 9.58 $6,300 10.99 $7,400
Maurice Jones-Drew RB JAC IND@JAC 10.06 $7,000 10.67 $9,350
Ryan Mathews RB SD DAL@SD 9.81 $6,100 10.38 $6,700
Lamar Miller RB MIA MIA@NO 9.21 $6,500 9.74 $8,100
Rashard Mendenhall RB ARI ARI@TB 8.93 $6,400 9.61 $7,800
Jacquizz Rodgers RB ATL NE@ATL 8.49 $5,500 9.59 $7,450
Ben Tate RB HOU SEA@HOU 8.49 $6,000 9.47 $6,550
Andre Ellington RB ARI ARI@TB 7.74 $4,500 9.15 $5,000
Stevan Ridley RB NE NE@ATL 8.70 $6,300 9.10 $7,600
Bernard Pierce RB BAL BAL@BUF 8.42 $6,800 8.88 $10,250
Brandon Bolden RB NE NE@ATL 7.56 $4,500 8.84 $6,700
Willis McGahee RB CLE CIN@CLE 7.60 $4,500 8.07 $7,500
Isaiah Pead RB STL SF@STL 6.71 $5,600 7.78 $6,950
Da'Rel Scott RB NYG NYG@KC 6.55 $4,500 7.77 $6,300
Daniel Thomas RB MIA MIA@NO 7.30 $4,500 7.72 $6,200
David Wilson RB NYG NYG@KC 7.30 $5,900 7.30 $7,400
BenJarvus Green-Ellis RB CIN CIN@CLE 6.85 $6,100 7.14 $6,250
Chris Ogbonnaya RB CLE CIN@CLE 6.15 $4,500 7.14 $5,000
Marcel Reece RB OAK WAS@OAK 6.14 $4,500 7.00 $9,600
Montee Ball RB DEN PHI@DEN 6.18 $5,800 6.18 $9,600
Donald Brown RB IND IND@JAC 5.62 $4,500 6.07 $5,800
Le'Veon Bell RB PIT PIT@MIN 5.59 $6,300 5.89 $8,500
Khiry Robinson RB NO MIA@NO 5.01 $4,500 5.01 $0
Kendall Hunter RB SF SF@STL 4.46 $4,500 4.79 $5,000
Bryce Brown RB PHI PHI@DEN 4.59 $4,500 4.59 $5,000
Jackie Battle RB TEN NYJ@TEN 4.32 $5,000 4.32 $5,250
LeGarrette Blount RB NE NE@ATL 4.29 $4,500 4.29 $5,000
Bruce Miller RB SF SF@STL 3.01 $4,500 3.92 $4,000
Robert Turbin RB SEA SEA@HOU 3.49 $4,500 3.86 $5,250
Michael Bush RB CHI CHI@DET 3.79 $4,500 3.79 $5,000
Bobby Rainey RB CLE CIN@CLE 3.71 $4,500 3.71 $5,000
Rashad Jennings RB OAK WAS@OAK 3.28 $4,500 3.69 $5,100
Jordan Todman RB JAC IND@JAC 3.23 $4,500 3.68 $5,000
Vonta Leach RB BAL BAL@BUF 2.82 $4,500 3.62 $5,500
Ronnie Hillman RB DEN PHI@DEN 3.17 $5,300 3.59 $8,650
Jonathan Dwyer RB PIT PIT@MIN 3.21 $5,000 3.52 $5,000
Roy Helu RB WAS WAS@OAK 2.78 $4,500 3.48 $4,250
Lance Dunbar RB DAL DAL@SD 2.97 $4,500 3.33 $4,000
Ronnie Brown RB SD DAL@SD 3.31 $4,500 3.31 $5,550
Felix Jones RB PIT PIT@MIN 2.90 $4,500 3.27 $5,000
Knile Davis RB KC NYG@KC 2.82 $4,500 3.12 $0
Alfonso Smith RB ARI ARI@TB 2.57 $4,500 3.03 $5,000
Brandon Jacobs RB NYG NYG@KC 2.92 $4,500 2.92 $5,000
Toby Gerhart RB MIN PIT@MIN 2.42 $4,500 2.89 $5,000
Alex Green RB NYJ NYJ@TEN 2.49 $4,500 2.75 $4,250
Brian Leonard RB TB ARI@TB 1.99 $4,500 2.49 $4,700
Tommy Bohanon RB NYJ NYJ@TEN 1.33 $4,500 1.90 $0
Christine Michael RB SEA SEA@HOU 1.88 $4,500 1.88 $0
Mike James RB TB ARI@TB 1.44 $4,500 1.44 $0
Stanley Havili RB IND IND@JAC 0.99 $4,500 1.34 $4,000
Benny Cunningham RB STL SF@STL 1.18 $4,500 1.18 $0
Calvin Johnson WR DET CHI@DET 17.35 $9,200 20.39 $18,450
Julio Jones WR ATL NE@ATL 17.11 $8,400 20.37 $17,400
Demaryius Thomas WR DEN PHI@DEN 17.04 $8,400 19.48 $15,250
Dez Bryant WR DAL DAL@SD 16.58 $8,600 19.41 $15,200
Pierre Garcon WR WAS WAS@OAK 14.87 $7,000 18.12 $13,900
A.J. Green WR CIN CIN@CLE 14.89 $8,600 18.03 $14,500
Wes Welker WR DEN PHI@DEN 14.74 $7,300 17.65 $13,050
Brandon Marshall WR CHI CHI@DET 13.81 $8,400 16.91 $15,200
Vincent Jackson WR TB ARI@TB 13.73 $7,600 16.79 $12,250
Anquan Boldin WR SF SF@STL 13.27 $6,800 16.10 $10,500
Antonio Brown WR PIT PIT@MIN 12.92 $6,500 15.99 $13,600
DeSean Jackson WR PHI PHI@DEN 12.91 $7,300 15.53 $13,800
Eric Decker WR DEN PHI@DEN 12.90 $6,500 15.46 $9,750
Torrey Smith WR BAL BAL@BUF 12.82 $7,000 15.35 $10,800
Reggie Wayne WR IND IND@JAC 12.50 $6,800 15.33 $12,200
Stevie Johnson WR BUF BAL@BUF 12.57 $6,000 15.09 $11,200
Josh Gordon WR CLE CIN@CLE 12.13 $6,500 14.74 $11,950
Mike Williams WR TB ARI@TB 11.72 $6,200 14.56 $8,750
Victor Cruz WR NYG NYG@KC 11.83 $7,000 14.26 $13,250
Larry Fitzgerald WR ARI ARI@TB 11.50 $7,500 14.10 $11,550
Cecil Shorts WR JAC IND@JAC 11.58 $6,200 14.00 $11,600
Dwayne Bowe WR KC NYG@KC 11.31 $6,200 13.99 $9,050
Kenbrell Thompkins WR NE NE@ATL 10.84 $5,900 12.83 $9,350
Andre Johnson WR HOU SEA@HOU 9.85 $7,100 12.78 $12,100
Marques Colston WR NO MIA@NO 10.70 $7,000 12.74 $11,700
Donnie Avery WR KC NYG@KC 10.38 $5,300 12.46 $6,500
Aaron Dobson WR NE NE@ATL 10.05 $5,000 12.20 $8,350
Brian Hartline WR MIA MIA@NO 9.70 $6,700 12.05 $9,200
Mike Wallace WR MIA MIA@NO 9.76 $6,300 11.85 $10,100
Tavon Austin WR STL SF@STL 9.51 $5,600 11.83 $7,700
Rod Streater WR OAK WAS@OAK 9.76 $5,000 11.74 $6,900
Michael Floyd WR ARI ARI@TB 9.47 $6,000 11.73 $7,800
Eddie Royal WR SD DAL@SD 9.86 $4,800 11.70 $7,750
Santana Moss WR WAS WAS@OAK 9.66 $4,800 11.70 $6,300
Stephen Hill WR NYJ NYJ@TEN 9.18 $5,000 11.44 $7,400
Alshon Jeffery WR CHI CHI@DET 9.15 $5,000 11.29 $6,950
Emmanuel Sanders WR PIT PIT@MIN 8.83 $5,500 11.29 $9,300
Denarius Moore WR OAK WAS@OAK 9.15 $5,400 10.95 $7,800
Roddy White WR ATL NE@ATL 8.80 $6,700 10.83 $7,600
T.Y. Hilton WR IND IND@JAC 8.69 $5,800 10.48 $8,100
Leonard Hankerson WR WAS WAS@OAK 8.81 $4,700 10.41 $7,800
Vincent Brown WR SD DAL@SD 8.79 $4,600 10.35 $6,300
Andre Roberts WR ARI ARI@TB 7.99 $4,800 10.20 $6,550
Nate Washington WR TEN NYJ@TEN 8.07 $5,200 10.16 $6,800
Golden Tate WR SEA SEA@HOU 8.30 $5,400 10.16 $8,100
Austin Pettis WR STL SF@STL 8.39 $5,100 10.08 $6,100
DeAndre Hopkins WR HOU SEA@HOU 7.87 $5,700 10.04 $10,000
Santonio Holmes WR NYJ NYJ@TEN 8.12 $4,700 10.03 $9,400
Jason Avant WR PHI PHI@DEN 8.05 $4,800 10.00 $7,000
Jerricho Cotchery WR PIT PIT@MIN 8.13 $4,700 9.97 $6,450
Ryan Broyles WR DET CHI@DET 8.32 $5,000 9.90 $7,450
Terrance Williams WR DAL DAL@SD 8.06 $4,500 9.90 $0
Hakeem Nicks WR NYG NYG@KC 8.04 $6,300 9.83 $11,150
Davone Bess WR CLE CIN@CLE 7.21 $4,600 9.71 $6,300
Kendall Wright WR TEN NYJ@TEN 7.54 $5,500 9.63 $9,200
Julian Edelman WR NE NE@ATL 7.49 $6,500 9.56 $12,200
Marlon Brown WR BAL BAL@BUF 7.94 $5,000 9.44 $7,550
Kyle Williams WR SF SF@STL 7.61 $4,500 9.29 $5,700
Mohamed Sanu WR CIN CIN@CLE 7.20 $4,900 9.28 $7,100
Greg Jennings WR MIN PIT@MIN 7.38 $5,600 9.25 $7,450
Darrius Heyward-Bey WR IND IND@JAC 7.36 $5,200 9.25 $6,500
Chris Givens WR STL SF@STL 7.87 $5,600 9.17 $7,550
Harry Douglas WR ATL NE@ATL 7.65 $4,800 9.15 $5,750
Doug Baldwin WR SEA SEA@HOU 7.38 $4,800 8.92 $5,550
Jerome Simpson WR MIN PIT@MIN 6.90 $4,600 8.83 $5,950
Ace Sanders WR JAC IND@JAC 6.84 $4,500 8.75 $6,000
Brandon Gibson WR MIA MIA@NO 6.77 $4,600 8.75 $5,550
Robert Woods WR BUF BAL@BUF 7.07 $4,800 8.31 $6,700
Rueben Randle WR NYG NYG@KC 6.38 $4,700 7.84 $7,050
Sidney Rice WR SEA SEA@HOU 6.39 $5,800 7.69 $7,000
Greg Little WR CLE CIN@CLE 5.41 $5,100 7.14 $7,000
Josh Morgan WR WAS WAS@OAK 5.82 $4,800 7.10 $5,910
Riley Cooper WR PHI PHI@DEN 5.39 $4,700 6.50 $5,900
Jeremy Kerley WR NYJ NYJ@TEN 4.78 $4,800 6.22 $6,550
Kevin Ogletree WR TB ARI@TB 5.10 $4,500 6.21 $5,550
Brandon Stokley WR BAL BAL@BUF 4.80 $4,600 6.07 $5,200
Lance Moore WR NO MIA@NO 4.65 $4,700 5.78 $6,400
Robert Meachem WR NO MIA@NO 5.03 $4,700 5.76 $5,000
Stephen Burton WR JAC IND@JAC 4.31 $4,500 5.66 $5,550
Dwayne Harris WR DAL DAL@SD 4.66 $4,500 5.65 $4,100
Dexter McCluster WR KC NYG@KC 4.15 $4,500 5.34 $6,150
Marvin Jones WR CIN CIN@CLE 4.11 $4,700 5.24 $5,000
Brice Butler WR OAK WAS@OAK 3.87 $4,500 4.82 $0
Jarius Wright WR MIN PIT@MIN 3.78 $4,500 4.72 $5,000
Earl Bennett WR CHI CHI@DET 3.75 $4,500 4.65 $5,000
Justin Hunter WR TEN NYJ@TEN 3.73 $4,500 4.61 $0
Keenan Allen WR SD DAL@SD 3.79 $4,500 4.60 $0
Cordarrelle Patterson WR MIN PIT@MIN 3.60 $4,500 4.40 $0
Jacoby Ford WR OAK WAS@OAK 3.54 $4,500 4.21 $5,500
Kenny Britt WR TEN NYJ@TEN 3.30 $4,700 4.18 $5,800
Jermaine Kearse WR SEA SEA@HOU 3.29 $5,100 3.94 $5,000
Markus Wheaton WR PIT PIT@MIN 2.79 $4,500 3.41 $4,800
Andre Caldwell WR DEN PHI@DEN 2.75 $4,800 3.16 $5,700
T.J. Graham WR BUF BAL@BUF 2.48 $4,500 3.10 $5,400
Brian Quick WR STL SF@STL 2.54 $4,500 2.99 $5,600
Kenny Stills WR NO MIA@NO 2.52 $4,800 2.98 $0
Travis Benjamin WR CLE CIN@CLE 2.38 $4,500 2.96 $4,000
Eric Page WR TB ARI@TB 2.28 $4,500 2.78 $0
Marlon Moore WR SF SF@STL 2.10 $4,500 2.63 $4,000
Rishard Matthews WR MIA MIA@NO 2.00 $4,500 2.52 $4,000
DeVier Posey WR HOU SEA@HOU 1.95 $4,500 2.51 $4,000
Aldrick Robinson WR WAS WAS@OAK 2.10 $4,500 2.48 $5,000
Keshawn Martin WR HOU SEA@HOU 1.51 $4,500 1.92 $5,400
Junior Hemingway WR KC NYG@KC 1.49 $4,500 1.84 $4,000
Damian Williams WR TEN NYJ@TEN 1.31 $4,500 1.64 $4,000
Denard Robinson WR JAC IND@JAC 1.35 $4,500 1.35 $4,250
Jimmy Graham TE NO MIA@NO 17.44 $8,400 20.55 $17,600
Jason Witten TE DAL DAL@SD 13.40 $6,500 16.37 $10,450
Rob Gronkowski TE NE NE@ATL 13.22 $6,900 15.69 $12,250
Antonio Gates TE SD DAL@SD 12.86 $6,200 15.28 $9,300
Jordan Cameron TE CLE CIN@CLE 11.70 $7,200 14.42 $12,600
Julius Thomas TE DEN PHI@DEN 12.53 $6,600 14.38 $11,150
Martellus Bennett TE CHI CHI@DET 10.48 $6,000 12.73 $8,850
Tony Gonzalez TE ATL NE@ATL 9.48 $6,300 11.56 $8,700
Vernon Davis TE SF SF@STL 9.26 $7,100 11.18 $9,850
Heath Miller TE PIT PIT@MIN 8.93 $5,800 11.08 $7,350
Jermaine Gresham TE CIN CIN@CLE 8.50 $4,500 10.99 $6,950
Jared Cook TE STL SF@STL 8.81 $5,700 10.45 $8,650
Brandon Myers TE NYG NYG@KC 8.16 $4,700 10.44 $8,400
Charles Clay TE MIA MIA@NO 8.02 $4,600 10.11 $6,800
Scott Chandler TE BUF BAL@BUF 8.04 $4,600 9.80 $6,350
Coby Fleener TE IND IND@JAC 7.79 $5,500 9.18 $7,250
Dallas Clark TE BAL BAL@BUF 7.36 $4,500 9.08 $6,000
Tyler Eifert TE CIN CIN@CLE 6.57 $4,700 8.23 $6,800
Delanie Walker TE TEN NYJ@TEN 6.48 $4,700 8.03 $6,450
Rob Housler TE ARI ARI@TB 6.27 $4,600 7.97 $6,500
Kyle Rudolph TE MIN PIT@MIN 6.07 $5,500 7.62 $7,750
Owen Daniels TE HOU SEA@HOU 6.11 $5,600 7.56 $8,300
Brent Celek TE PHI PHI@DEN 5.82 $4,600 6.93 $5,350
Lance Kendricks TE STL SF@STL 5.51 $4,500 6.92 $5,800
Mychal Rivera TE OAK WAS@OAK 5.21 $4,500 6.43 $0
Kellen Winslow TE NYJ NYJ@TEN 5.00 $4,700 6.28 $5,400
Marcedes Lewis TE JAC IND@JAC 4.98 $4,600 6.17 $5,400
Brandon Pettigrew TE DET CHI@DET 4.65 $4,700 5.73 $5,000
Zach Miller TE SEA SEA@HOU 4.74 $5,100 5.67 $7,050
Sean McGrath TE KC NYG@KC 4.44 $4,500 5.57 $5,750
Tony Scheffler TE DET CHI@DET 4.47 $4,500 5.48 $5,800
Gavin Escobar TE DAL DAL@SD 4.47 $4,500 5.32 $0
Allen Reisner TE JAC IND@JAC 3.81 $4,500 4.88 $4,000
Jeff Cumberland TE NYJ NYJ@TEN 3.56 $4,500 4.54 $4,000
Ladarius Green TE SD DAL@SD 3.49 $4,500 4.18 $4,000
Logan Paulsen TE WAS WAS@OAK 2.98 $4,600 3.81 $5,000
Zach Ertz TE PHI PHI@DEN 2.97 $4,500 3.73 $0
Luke Willson TE SEA SEA@HOU 2.99 $4,500 3.69 $0
Garrett Graham TE HOU SEA@HOU 2.91 $4,700 3.68 $5,800
Nate Byham TE TB ARI@TB 2.74 $4,500 3.52 $4,000
Michael Hoomanawanui TE NE NE@ATL 2.68 $4,500 3.48 $4,250
Joseph Fauria TE DET CHI@DET 2.63 $4,600 3.27 $5,000
David Paulson TE PIT PIT@MIN 2.53 $4,500 3.08 $5,000
David Johnson TE PIT PIT@MIN 2.44 $4,500 3.05 $5,000
Vance McDonald TE SF SF@STL 2.17 $4,500 2.65 $0
Dion Sims TE MIA MIA@NO 1.88 $4,500 2.35 $0
Levine Toilolo TE ATL NE@ATL 1.64 $4,500 2.03 $0
Ed Dickson TE BAL BAL@BUF 1.19 $4,500 1.48 $6,600
Bear Pascoe TE NYG NYG@KC 0.94 $4,500 1.24 $4,000
Dan Bailey K DAL DAL@SD 9.66 $5,100 9.66 $5,800
Matt Prater K DEN PHI@DEN 9.44 $5,400 9.44 $6,000
David Akers K DET CHI@DET 9.32 $5,300 9.32 $5,500
Sebastian Janikowski K OAK WAS@OAK 8.99 $5,000 8.99 $5,600
Alex Henery K PHI PHI@DEN 8.86 $5,100 8.86 $5,700
Ryan Succop K KC NYG@KC 8.63 $5,200 8.63 $5,500
Adam Vinatieri K IND IND@JAC 8.47 $5,000 8.47 $5,400
Matt Bryant K ATL NE@ATL 8.45 $5,300 8.45 $5,400
Phil Dawson K SF SF@STL 8.34 $5,400 8.34 $5,700
Stephen Gostkowski K NE NE@ATL 8.23 $5,700 8.23 $5,600
Justin Tucker K BAL BAL@BUF 8.16 $5,300 8.16 $5,500
Garrett Hartley K NO MIA@NO 7.95 $5,500 7.95 $5,600
Shaun Suisham K PIT PIT@MIN 7.86 $5,000 7.86 $5,200
Greg Zuerlein K STL SF@STL 7.86 $5,100 7.86 $5,600
Nick Novak K SD DAL@SD 7.42 $5,000 7.42 $5,500
John Potter K WAS WAS@OAK 7.36 $5,000 7.36 $5,400
Nick Folk K NYJ NYJ@TEN 7.19 $5,000 7.19 $5,300
Dan Carpenter K BUF BAL@BUF 7.11 $5,100 7.11 $5,600
Robbie Gould K CHI CHI@DET 7.11 $5,000 7.11 $5,400
Steven Hauschka K SEA SEA@HOU 7.08 $5,000 7.08 $5,500
Caleb Sturgis K MIA MIA@NO 7.02 $5,200 7.02 $0
Jay Feely K ARI ARI@TB 6.69 $5,100 6.69 $5,400
Rian Lindell K TB ARI@TB 6.61 $5,000 6.61 $5,200
Blair Walsh K MIN PIT@MIN 6.49 $5,300 6.49 $5,500
Randy Bullock K HOU SEA@HOU 6.35 $5,200 6.35 $5,400
Billy Cundiff K CLE CIN@CLE 6.33 $0 6.33 $5,500
Josh Brown K NYG NYG@KC 6.28 $5,000 6.28 $5,000
Rob Bironas K TEN NYJ@TEN 6.25 $5,000 6.25 $5,700
Mike Nugent K CIN CIN@CLE 6.12 $5,000 6.12 $5,300
Josh Scobee K JAC IND@JAC 5.78 $5,000 5.78 $5,000
Indianapolis Colts DEF   IND@JAC 13.00 $5,000 13.00 $5,500
Tennessee Titans DEF   NYJ@TEN 12.28 $5,100 12.28 $5,000
Kansas City Chiefs DEF   NYG@KC 11.04 $5,300 11.04 $5,700
Tampa Bay Buccaneers DEF   ARI@TB 10.78 $5,400 10.78 $5,700
Cincinnati Bengals DEF   CIN@CLE 10.00 $5,400 10.00 $5,600
Seattle Seahawks DEF   SEA@HOU 9.85 $5,700 9.85 $6,000
New York Jets DEF   NYJ@TEN 9.81 $5,000 9.81 $5,000
Pittsburgh Steelers DEF   PIT@MIN 9.10 $5,000 9.10 $5,000
Arizona Cardinals DEF   ARI@TB 8.89 $5,100 8.89 $5,000
Minnesota Vikings DEF   PIT@MIN 8.08 $5,200 8.08 $6,300
Cleveland Browns DEF   CIN@CLE 8.01 $5,000 8.01 $5,800
New Orleans Saints DEF   MIA@NO 7.67 $5,000 7.67 $5,000
Baltimore Ravens DEF   BAL@BUF 5.57 $5,200 5.57 $5,500
San Francisco 49ers DEF   SF@STL 5.10 $5,700 5.10 $6,500
Houston Texans DEF   SEA@HOU 4.88 $5,500 4.88 $5,300
Detroit Lions DEF   CHI@DET 4.73 $5,200 4.73 $5,000
St. Louis Rams DEF   SF@STL 4.45 $5,000 4.45 $5,500
Washington Redskins DEF   WAS@OAK 4.27 $5,000 4.27 $5,000
Dallas Cowboys DEF   DAL@SD 4.05 $5,200 4.05 $5,800
Buffalo Bills DEF   BAL@BUF 3.73 $5,000 3.73 $5,400
New York Giants DEF   NYG@KC 3.05 $5,000 3.05 $5,000
New England Patriots DEF   NE@ATL 2.95 $5,400 2.95 $5,000
Denver Broncos DEF   PHI@DEN 2.89 $5,400 2.89 $5,600
Jacksonville Jaguars DEF   IND@JAC 1.30 $5,000 1.30 $5,000
Oakland Raiders DEF   WAS@OAK 0.96 $5,200 0.96 $5,000
Atlanta Falcons DEF   NE@ATL 0.49 $5,000 0.49 $5,000
Miami Dolphins DEF   MIA@NO 0.07 $5,200 0.07 $5,000
San Diego Chargers DEF   DAL@SD -0.70 $5,000 -0.70 $5,000
Chicago Bears DEF   CHI@DET -0.99 $5,500 -0.99 $6,000
Philadelphia Eagles DEF   PHI@DEN -9.01 $5,000 -9.01 $5,000

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The Predictalator

The Predictalator is the most advanced sports forecasting software available today because it has the ability to account for all of the relevant statistical interactions of the players (playing or not playing/injured), coaches, officials, fans (home field advantage) and weather in each game.

04/14/2014 Highlight: Using the ResultsFinder for the week of April 7th - 13th, one could find that all highlighted, MLB "normal" or better picks went 26-19 (58% ML, O/U, RL). This includes "normal" over/under picks going 10-4 (71% O/U). All-time (since the start of the 2012 season), all normal over/under MLB plays are 270-212 (56% O/U).

As the regular season concludes, NBA plays are heating up. All normal plays for the week in the NBA went 7-4 (64% ATS & O/U). Total picks continue to be strong, going 4-2 (67% O/U) with "normal" picks last week. Such "normal" plays are 43-32 (57% O/U) since the beginning of the year in the NBA.

The Predictalator plays every game 50,000 times before it's actually played. This provides us the ability to assign probabilities to the likelihood of just about any outcome occurring in any contest including straight-up, against-the-spread and over/under winners of each game.

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