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    Northeast (03/04/14)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
    By John Ewing
    Championship Week – which teams will win automatic bids to the NCAA tournament? We simulated each conference tournament to find out.



    Conference tournaments are the unofficial start of March Madness. Over the next two weeks, single-elimination tournaments will be played with automatic bids to the NCAA tournament at stake.

    We have simulated each conference tournament using our Bracket Simulator to predict which teams will punch their ticket to the Big Dance. The Bracket Simulator is a free tool that gives you the power to simulate the postseason for any sport. Create your own bracket now!

    PredictionMachine.com has been very profitable in conference tournaments. All-time on the site, "normal" or better conference tournament picks are 84-54 (61% ATS and O/U). For access to conference tournament picks, click here.

    When: March 5-11

    Where: Campus sites

    The automatic bid goes to: Robert Morris (23.0%)

    The road to the 2014 NEC Men’s Basketball Tournament title will go through Robert Morris. The Colonials have won the NEC regular season title in five of the last seven years. Senior Karvel Anderson, NEC Player of the Year, will look to lead the Colonials to the program's eighth NCAA tournament and first since 2010.

    And if they lose: Wagner (21.9%)

    Wagner snapped Robert Morris’s seven game winning streak in the regular season finale last Saturday. Unfortunately for the Seahawks, the win over Robert Morris came at home. To win the NEC title, Wagner will need to beat the Colonials on the road, something they haven’t done since the 2004-05 season.

    Bid Thieves:

    Bryant: 4 of the Bulldogs 6 conference losses came on the road, Bryant will open NEC Tournament play at home.
     
    St. Francis (NY): The Terriers are looking for their first NEC Tournament win since 2003 and a championship would be the first in the program’s history.
     
    Odds to win (based on 50,000 simulations of the conference tournament) the Northeast Tournament

    Seed Team Final Title Game Champ.
    1 Robert Morris 67.7 40.3 23.0
    8 FDU 32.4 12.4 5.0
    4 Mt. St. Mary's 46.1 20.4 9.7
    5 St. Francis (NY) 53.9 27.0 13.5
    3 Bryant 72.6 38.4 20.2
    6 St. Francis (PA) 27.5 8.4 2.4
    2 Wagner 68.2 40.4 21.9
    7 C. Conn. St. 31.9 12.9 4.5

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