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    Colonial (03/06/14)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
    By John Ewing
    Championship Week – which teams will win automatic bids to the NCAA tournament? We simulated each conference tournament to find out.


     
    Conference tournaments are the unofficial start of March Madness. Over the next two weeks, single-elimination tournaments will be played with automatic bids to the NCAA tournament at stake.
     
    We have simulated each conference tournament using our Bracket Simulator to predict which teams will punch their ticket to the Big Dance. The Bracket Simulator is a free tool that gives you the power to simulate the postseason for any sport. Create your own bracket now!
     
    PredictionMachine.com has been very profitable in conference tournaments. All-time on the site, "normal" or better conference tournament picks are 84-54 (61% ATS and O/U), through 2013. For access to conference tournament picks, click here.
     
    When: March 7-10
     
    Where: Baltimore, MD
     
    The automatic bid goes to: Delaware (26.9%)
     
    Delaware ranks outside the top 100 in our Power Rankings but so do all the other members of the Colonial Conference. The Fightin’ Blue Hens are in the driver's seat to win the Colonial Tournament and return to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1999.
     
    And if they lose: Towson (23.1%)
     
    Towson was ineligible last season for the CAA Tournament (academics). With the second seed in this year’s tournament the Tigers could make a run at the conference's automatic bid and a return to March Madness, something they haven’t done since 1991.
     
    Bid Thief:
     
    Drexel: The Dragons are 96th in defensive efficiency, the best in the league. Look for tight contests if Drexel faces either Delaware or Towson.
     
    Odds to win the Colonial (based on 50,000 simulations of the conference tournament) 

    Seed Team Final Title Game Champ.
    1 Delaware 72 43.6 26.9
    8/9 Hofstra/UNC-Wilm. 28.1 9 3.1
    4 Drexel 63.1 33.2 17.6
    5 Northeastern 37 14.3 6.3
    3 W&M 52.6 24.1 11.1
    6 Charleston 47.4 20.7 8.3
    2 Towson 69.8 42.7 23.1
    7 James Mad 30.3 12.5 3.8

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