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    C-USA (03/10/14)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
    By John Ewing
    Championship Week – which teams will win automatic bids to the NCAA tournament? We simulated each conference tournament to find out.


     
    Conference tournaments are the unofficial start of March Madness. Over the next two weeks, single-elimination tournaments will be played with automatic bids to the NCAA tournament at stake.
     
    We have simulated each conference tournament using our Bracket Simulator to predict which teams will punch their ticket to the Big Dance. The Bracket Simulator is a free tool that gives you the power to simulate the postseason for any sport. Create your own bracket now!
     
    PredictionMachine.com has been very profitable in conference tournaments. All-time on the site, "normal" or better conference tournament picks are 84-54 (61% ATS and O/U), through 2013. For access to conference tournament picks, click here.
     
    When: March 11-15
     
    Where: El Paso, TX
     
    The automatic bid goes to: Louisiana Tech (28.9%)
     
    The Bulldogs have not been to the NCAA Tournament since 1991 but Louisiana Tech is the bookmakers' favorite to win it all at 13/10 odds. La-Tech might not need a C-USA title to receive an invitation to the Big Dance; the Bulldogs are currently No. 49 in our Power Rankings
     
    And if they lose: Southern Miss. (18.5%)
     
    The Golden Eagles clinched its first C-USA regular season championship since 2001, yet Southern Miss. is part of the “Next Four Out” in Joe Lunardi’s most recent Bracketology. The C-USA Champion will most likely be the winner of a possible semifinal featuring Southern Miss. and Louisiana Tech.
     
    Bid Thief:
     
    Tulsa: The Golden Hurricanes started the season 4-9 but are on an eight game winning streak that includes five road victories.
     
    Odds to win the C-USA (based on 50,000 simulations of the conference tournament) 

    Seed Team Elite 8 Final 4 Title Game Champ.
    1 Louisiana Tech  100.0  74.4  43.4  28.9
    4 Southern Miss  100.0  60.9  30.5  18.5
    2 Tulsa  100.0  72.8  39.5  17.2
    3 Middle Tenn.  100.0  68.9  39.7  17.0
    5 UTEP  73.8  33.5  15.6  8.6
    6 Old Dominion  56.9  18.6  6.9  2.5
    8 UAB  54.4  15.3  5.8  2.4
    10 North Texas  42.7  13.3  5.2  1.4
    9 Charlotte  45.7  10.4  3.2  1.2
    15 Rice  19.5  6.0  2.3  0.6
    14 Marshall  21.6  6.3  2.4  0.6
    11 FAU  21.6  6.3  2.4  0.6
    7 Tulane  37.8  8.0  1.8  0.3
    12 ECU  17.2  3.7  1.0  0.1
    13 UTSA  9.1  2.0  0.6  0.1

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