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    AAC (03/09/14)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
    By John Ewing
    Championship Week – which teams will win automatic bids to the NCAA tournament? We simulated each conference tournament to find out.


     
    Conference tournaments are the unofficial start of March Madness. Over the next two weeks, single-elimination tournaments will be played with automatic bids to the NCAA tournament at stake.
     
    We have simulated each conference tournament using our Bracket Simulator to predict which teams will punch their ticket to the Big Dance. The Bracket Simulator is a free tool that gives you the power to simulate the postseason for any sport. Create your own bracket now!
     
    PredictionMachine.com has been very profitable in conference tournaments. All-time on the site, "normal" or better conference tournament picks are 84-54 (61% ATS and O/U), through 2013. For access to conference tournament picks, click here.
     
    When: March 12-15
     
    Where: Memphis, TN
     
    The automatic bid goes to: Louisville (44.6%)
     
    Louisville, the defending national champions, lost a coin flip to be the No. 1 seed in the AAC Tournament. Nonetheless, the Cardinals are our pick to win the title and possibly challenge for a No. 1 seed in the Big Dance.
     
    And if they lose: Cincinnati (20.1%)
     
    A coin flip determined seeding but odds are we will see Cincinnati and Louisville playing for the conference championship. Louisville has scored 80+ points in three of the Cardinals last four games, but the Bearcats are 4th in defensive efficiency, which should make for an exciting championship game.
     
    Bid Thief:
     
    Houston: It is hard to pick a bid thief, as the top five seeds in the AAC Tournament are locks to receive an at-large bid. Houston can surprise teams, as the Cougars have already defeated UConn and Memphis this season.
     
    Odds to win the AAC (based on 50,000 simulations of the conference tournament) 

    Seed Team Final Title Game Champ.
    2  Louisville   88.9  64.0  44.6
    1  Cincinnati   79.9  44.8  20.1
    3  SMU   74.9  28.5  14.2
    4  UCONN   54.0  29.4  11.7
    5  Memphis   46.0  21.3  6.8
    6  Houston   25.1  5.0  1.3
    8  Temple   10.6  2.4  0.4
    9  UCF   9.5  2.1  0.4
    7  Rutgers   8.1  1.8  0.4
    10  USF   3.0  0.7  0.1

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