New User? Sign Up / Forgot Your Password?
All Live
Projections
    All Live Projections

    College Football Playoff (12/07/14)

    By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
    College Football Playoff - odds for each team to win the title.



    Who's in? The question has been answered and the four-team playoff is set.

    Alabama, Oregon, Florida State and Ohio State (just like we predicted in August) will participate in the first ever College Football Playoff.

    Which team is the most likely champion and what are the odds each team wins the title?

    How this works
    The Predictalator uses current rosters and strength-of-schedule and efficiency-adjusted team and player stats (weighted slightly more toward recent games), to play every game 50,000 times before it's actually played. For this analysis, we are tracking how likely a team is to make it to and win the championship of the College Football Playoffs.

    The Most Likely Champion Is…

    Alabama is No. 1 in our Power Rankings for the eighth straight weeks. The Crimson Tide is the only team in the country ranked in the top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency.

    The SEC Champions are the No. 1 seed for a reason and would be favored on a neutral field over Oregon, Florida State and Ohio State and every other team in the country by at least a field goal.

    After 50,000 simulations, the most likely National Champion is the Alabama Crimson Tide. Alabama wins 44.8% of all the simulated tournaments. In the most likely National Championship game, Alabama defeats Oregon 58.4% of the time by an average score of 34-30.

    The biggest impact of the selection committee's ranking is not the fact that TCU was left out of the playoffs, but rather that Florida State moved from the fourth to the third seed.

    The Seminoles have won three straight ACC titles, have a winning streak of 29 straight games and are the defending National Champions. However, Florida State ranks just 14th overall in our Power Rankings. There are 13 teams in the country that would be favored over Florida State on a neutral field.

    Like in March Madness, seed and path to the championship are critical to each team's projected playoff probabilities. Had Florida State remained the fourth seed, Alabama's odds to win the title improve.

    Alabama, in a bracket in which it played Florida State in the semifinal instead of Ohio State, would become more than 50% likely to win its fourth title in six years. Oregon, in this hypothetical scenario, would see its championship odds drop to less than 30% with a tougher opening round matchup against Ohio State.

    Based on the analysis, here is the projected College Football Playoff bracket:

    Semifinals
    No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Ohio State
    Alabama wins 69.9% of the time and by an average score of 30-21.

    No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 3 Florida State
    Oregon wins 72.6% of the time and by an average score of 41-28.

    National Championship
    No 1. Alabama vs. No. 2 Oregon
    Alabama wins 58.4% of the time and by an average score of 34-30.

    The likelihoods for each team to win the championship are 44.8% for Alabama, 33.9% for Oregon, 14.7% for Ohio State and 6.6% for Florida State.


    Print This Article
    PREVIOUS ARTICLE
    3 Up 3 Down (College Week 15)
    NEXT ARTICLE
    3 Up 3 Down (College Week 14)
    Want More Tips and Information? Click To Register!

    COMMENTS

    SEARCH BLOGS

    ARCHIVE

    Ad

    The Predictalator

    06/04/2017 Highlight: With the NHL Stanley Cup Finals nearing its conclusion, we can leverage our ResultsFinder tool to profile our playoffs-to-date numbers. Since the start of May, the Predictalator is an incredible 25-9 (73.5%) on all NHL selections, including money line sides, totals, and puck lines. An average $50 bettor would have profited $242; six times more than the cost of the full NHL Playoffs package.

    The NBA Playoffs have featured more ups-and-downs than the NHL postseason; however, totals continue to produce at a solid clip for the Predictalator. Dating back to the beginning of April, the Predictalator has posted a stellar 53-41 (56.4%) record on all playable NBA totals, producing $351 in total profit for a $50 bettor.

    Check out the Shop now to learn more.

    Recommended Features

    LOGIN

    LATEST ARTICLES

    Comparing the Best Teams in NBA History
    We use advanced statistical methods to rank past great championship teams against the most recent NBA championship and powerhouse teams.

    MLB Risers & Fallers - Power Rankings
    Mark Dankenbring discusses the biggest risers and fallers in our MLB Power Rankings over the course of the past week.

    FIND US ONLINE


    SportsRadar


    All registered accounts are subject to our General Terms Of Service. Content is intended for informational purposes only. This is not a gambling website.

    FSTA Member 2015
    Home | The Predictalator | Blog | Privacy |  Media Contact |  B2B Solutions |  Sitemap |  Customer Support | 
    © 2010-2015 PredictionMachine.com, LLC. All rights reserved. | Site Designed by Randombell.com