New User? Sign Up / Forgot Your Password?
All Live
    All Live Projections

    College Football Playoff (10/21/15)

    By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing's Director of Research and Analytics, John Ewing, takes a look at what the College Football Playoffs could look like through 50,000 simulations of FootballFour's most likely four-team playoff. Follow John on Twitter @JohnEwing for more notes from his analysis and to let him know what else you may like to see with these projections.

    How this works
    The Predictalator uses current rosters and strength-of-schedule and efficiency-adjusted team and player stats (weighted slightly more toward recent games), to play every game 50,000 times before it's actually played. For this analysis, we are tracking how likely a team is to make it to any level of the College Football Playoffs.

    Football Four Playoff Summary

    We have reached the midpoint of the season. The Football Four playoff projection includes Utah, Baylor, Ohio State and LSU – all undefeated. Each team has a clear path to the postseason, win out and you're in. What is the chance that these teams stay perfect?

    Note: these projections are through the regular season and do not include a conference championship game as the opponent is unknown.


    It was fun while it lasted. The Utes undefeated season likely ends with a trip to the Coliseum Saturday. USC is a field goal favorite over Utah. The boys from Salt Lake City have a 31.1 percent chance to upset the Trojans and just a 6.7 percent chance of running the table.


    The Bears' schedule is back-loaded with a brutal three game stretch against Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and TCU. Despite the third toughest remaining strength of schedule, Baylor is 47.2 percent likely to win all of its remaining regular season games.

    Ohio State

    Remember when it was a lock that the Buckeyes would go undefeated? There was greater than a 50 percent chance Ohio State would win out after dropping 42 points and 572 yards of offense on Virginia Tech in the season opener. Six games later the defending champion's record is unblemished, but the chance of going undefeated has dropped to 26.5 percent.


    The Tigers' schedule is no picnic. Trips to Tuscaloosa and Oxford are sandwiched around home games against Arkansas and Texas A&M. LSU has a 20.6 percent chance of running the table.


    Each week Ohio State, hands down, has the best defense of any playoff participant and each week the Buckeyes get smoked by a top-flight offense. Baylor is greater than 80 percent likely to knock Ohio State out of the playoff in the first semifinal and by two touchdowns on average.

    Leonard Fournette is a bad man.

    LSU is No. 1 in offensive rushing efficiency and Utah is outside the top 25 in defensive rushing efficiency. The Utes have no answer for Fournette and the Tigers advance to the title game 78.0% of the time by an average score of 34-25.

    National Championship

    Styles make fights and no team in the country can match Baylor offensively. LSU is great at rushing the ball but the Bears aren't too shabby either (averaging an FBS best 7.1 yards per carry). Plus, Baylor is top 15 vs. the run, it wouldn't be easy going for Fournette on the ground.

    After 50,000 simulations, the most likely National Champion is the Baylor Bears. Baylor wins 63.1% of all the simulated tournaments. In the most likely National Championship game, Baylor defeats LSU 68.0% of the time by an average score of 46-39.

    Based on the analysis, here is the projected College Football Playoff bracket.

    #1 Utah vs. #4 LSU
    LSU wins 78.0% of the time by an average score of 34-25.

    #2 Baylor vs. #3 Ohio State
    Baylor wins 83.3% of the time by an average score of 45-31.

    National Championship
    #2 Baylor vs. #4 LSU
    Baylor wins 68.0% of the time by an average score of 46-39.
    Print This Article
    3 Up 3 Down (College Week 8)
    3 Up 3 Down (College Week 7)
    Want More Tips and Information? Click To Register!





    The Predictalator

    The Predictalator is the most advanced sports forecasting software available today because it has the ability to account for all of the relevant statistical interactions of the players, coaches, officials, home field advantage and weather in each game.

    Picks for every game, including our Play Value Key and Calculator recommendations for optimal bankroll management and access to the Play Analyzer can be purchased in the Shop or by game here.

    04/24/2017 Highlight: With baseball season now in full swing, we can leverage our ResultsFinder tool to profile our season-to-date numbers. MLB sides, totals, and run lines have all been profitable to date, generating a total of $580 for an average $50 bettor. There are have been a total of nine "normal" or better positions year-to-date, and those positions are a sparkling 8-1 (88.9%), producing $393 in total profits. There is a ton of variance in baseball and there will be ups-and-downs along the way, but the early returns on the Predictalator's baseball projections are promising.

    The NBA Playoffs tipped off this week and the Predictalator is off to a stellar start. With a full season's worth of data to work with, the Predictalator has historically fared very well in the postseason across all sports, and this year has been no different. NBA playoff sides are 9-7 (56.3%) ATS, while NBA playoff totals are 15-9 (62.5%) through Sunday's action. A $50 bettor would have amassed $401 in total profits through the first week of the postseason alone.

    Check out the Shop now to learn more.

    Recommended Features



    NHL Playoff Probabilities - Updated 4/24
    We simulate the rest of the NHL playoffs 50,000 times to provide each remaining team's updated probability of reaching each level of the postseason.

    NBA Four Quarters
    Sean Pyritz breaks down the first round of the NBA Playoffs thus far and hands out his Sixth Man of the Week award.



    All registered accounts are subject to our General Terms Of Service. Content is intended for informational purposes only. This is not a gambling website.

    FSTA Member 2015
    Home | The Predictalator | Blog | Privacy |  Media Contact |  B2B Solutions |  Sitemap |  Customer Support | 
    © 2010-2015, LLC. All rights reserved. | Site Designed by