NBA Value Bets (04/17/14)

John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
Before the NBA Playoffs tip off this weekend, we take a moment to look for value in the future bets. Odds courtesy of Bovada.lv.



To determine if a team has value we look at what their current odds are to win the NBA Championship and compare that to our projected odds that they win the Larry O'Brien Championship Trophy. For example, Miami is listed at 2/1 to win the championship, in order for us to feel comfortable wagering on the Heat they would need to win it all 33.3% (which is 1/(1+2)) of the time. We project Miami to win it all 28.2% of the time, meaning there is no value in placing a bet at 2/1 odds.

Houston Rockets
Current odds: 20/1, Odds needed in order to place a wager: 4.8%
Houston wins the title 8.1% of the time

The Rockets have one of the league's best centers (Dwight Howard), the best shooting guard (James Harden), and can run and gun with anyone (4th in offensive efficiency). Plus, you are getting long shot odds.

Los Angeles Clippers
Current odds: 9/1, Odds needed in order to place a wager: 10.0%
Los Angeles wins the title 13.2% of the time

The Clippers are the best team in our Power Rankings and one of just three teams that have a top ten offense and defense. Chris Paul and Blake Griffin both are likely to receive MVP votes, DeAndre Jordan is a candidate for Defensive and Most Improved Player of the Year and Jamal Crawford could win Sixth Man of the Year. Los Angeles is a deep and talented team that is capable of making a title run.

Chicago Bulls
Current odds: 40/1, Odds needed in order to place a wager: 2.4%
Chicago wins the title 4.0% of the time

With all due respect, the Bulls are an annoying team to play. When it comes to effort, Chicago is the most consistent team in the league. The Bulls never quit and will make any series interesting. It is why Miami and Brooklyn both rested starters to avoid playing Chicago in the second round.

Below are the odds for each team to win the NBA Championship. Plus, odds needed to place a wager and our projected odds for each team to win the NBA Championship

Team Odds Odds Needed Projected Odds
Heat 2/1 33.3% 28.2%
Thunder 4/1 20.0% 17.8%
Clippers 9/1 10.0% 13.2%
Spurs 3/1 25.0% 11.3%
Rockets 20/1 4.8% 8.1%
Pacers 6/1 14.3% 7.1%
Bulls 40/1 2.4% 4.0%
Warriors 28/1 3.4% 2.9%
Raptors 66/1 1.5% 1.8%
Trailblazers 40/1 2.4% 1.7%
Mavericks 66/1 1.5% 1.3%
Grizzlies 66/1 1.5% 1.2%
Nets 25/1 3.8% 0.9%
Wizards 150/1 0.7% 0.5%
Bobcats 250/1 0.4% 0.1%
Hawks 250/1 0.4% 0.0%

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