New User? Sign Up / Forgot Your Password?
All Live
    All Live Projections

    Ben McAdoo: Spread Killer (9/19/16)

    By Rob Pizzola @robpizzola

    We pick it up late in the fourth quarter, with the Giants and Saints tied up at 13. Facing a third-and-8 in Saints territory, Eli Manning hits Victor Cruz for 34 yards down the right sideline as he gets taken down at the two-yard line. New Orleans burns their final timeout.

    Giants' bettors begin to rejoice as this is obviously a great opportunity for New York to punch it into the end zone and cover the spread (-3.5 closing line, -5 earlier in the week). Unfortunately for Giants' bettors, Ben McAdoo isn't worried about covering spreads—he's worried about winning the game. Eli Manning comes out of the huddle and kneels for a loss of one yard. The Giants let the play clock run all the way down to one second and then burn a timeout, and at this point, New York ATS backers know they're cooked. Eli took two more knees and Josh Brown eventually kicked the game-winning chip shot to give the Giants a 16-13 victory.

    This wasn't exactly a popular decision by any means.

    Now, if the Giants had decided to go for the touchdown, there are two possible scenarios:
    1. The Saints play actual defense and try to stop the Giants offense, or
    2. The Saints intentionally let the Giants offense score

    In scenario #1, the Giants are highly likely to score in some capacity. The only real way that they blow it here is if they somehow turn the ball over via a fumble, or interception (which is almost never going to happen because New York is extremely, extremely, extremely unlikely to throw in this situation), or, of course, if their game-winning field goal try is no good (and the Saints win in overtime). In this scenario, the Giants still win the game approximately 99.5% of the time.

    However, let's assume for a minute that Saints head coach Sean Payton understands the percentages, and realizes it would be smart for the Saints defense to just let the Giants score (scenario #2). For argument sake, we'll assume that it takes the Giants five seconds to get into the end zone. If New York went up 20-13 with 1:27 left in the fourth quarter and kicked off to the Saints, we project New York to win roughly 98.5% of the time (remember, the Saints have also burned all of their timeouts at this point). There is also a rare scenario where the Giants miss the PAT on their touchdown, and their win expectancy drops to 97.4%.

    Neither of these scenarios came to fruition though, because head coach Ben McAdoo made the right call. By having Manning take three straight knees and burn the remainder of the time on the clock, the Giants' win expectancy was 99.7%. We're talking about small percentage points here, but it's the head coach's job to put his team in the best position to win, and McAdoo did just that. After enduring years of Tom Coughlin mismanaging the clock late in games, McAdoo must be a breath of fresh air for Giants fans. I'm sure Giants' spread bettors disagree.
    Print This Article
    Panthers vs. 49ers: 4th Quarter ATS Roller Coaster (9/19/16)
    Del Rio Made the Right Call (9/12/16)
    Want More Tips and Information? Click To Register!




    The Predictalator

    04/24/2017 Highlight: With baseball season now in full swing, we can leverage our ResultsFinder tool to profile our season-to-date numbers. MLB sides, totals, and run lines have all been profitable to date, generating a total of $580 for an average $50 bettor. There are have been a total of nine "normal" or better positions year-to-date, and those positions are a sparkling 8-1 (88.9%), producing $393 in total profits. There is a ton of variance in baseball and there will be ups-and-downs along the way, but the early returns on the Predictalator's baseball projections are promising.

    The NBA Playoffs tipped off this week and the Predictalator is off to a stellar start. With a full season's worth of data to work with, the Predictalator has historically fared very well in the postseason across all sports, and this year has been no different. NBA playoff sides are 9-7 (56.3%) ATS, while NBA playoff totals are 15-9 (62.5%) through Sunday's action. A $50 bettor would have amassed $401 in total profits through the first week of the postseason alone.

    Check out the Shop now to learn more.

    Recommended Features



    MLB - The So What?
    We use 50,000 simulations of the rest of the MLB season to analyze major personnel changes, including Miguel Cabrera's injury, Cody Bellinger's call up and the Seattle Mariners' mess.

    NHL Playoff Probabilities - Updated 4/24
    We simulate the rest of the NHL playoffs 50,000 times to provide each remaining team's updated probability of reaching each level of the postseason.



    All registered accounts are subject to our General Terms Of Service. Content is intended for informational purposes only. This is not a gambling website.

    FSTA Member 2015
    Home | The Predictalator | Blog | Privacy |  Media Contact |  B2B Solutions |  Sitemap |  Customer Support | 
    © 2010-2015, LLC. All rights reserved. | Site Designed by