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Paul's Pick: San Francisco +3.5 vs. New Orleans (Covers 57.5%)
Over the last six weeks, the San Francisco 49ers have gone from everyone's favorite sleeper/feel good/turn-around story (at least in the NFC) to a team that no one seems to think has a chance at home against the vaunted New Orleans Saints. While we never believed the 49ers were a legitimate threat to overtake the Green Bay Packers in the NFC or the AFC's best as Super Bowl favorites or even a top three spot in our NFL Team Rankings, they are 13-3 against a more difficult schedule than the Saints and have not lost a single game at home against-the-spread. The matchup and conditions are shaping up very well for this to be an extremely close game - not one that should see the road team favored by more than a field goal in only the second game under this NFL Playoff format with the road team favored at all.

San Francisco finished the season 13-3 against the 29th most difficult schedule in the NFL. The 49ers went 7-1 straight-up and 7-0-1 against-the-spread with their home only loss (a push on the line) coming in overtime against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 2. San Francisco did lose two of its last six straight-up and four of its last six against the spread, but there are many reasons for that which are not nearly as relevant now. As alluded to, around mid-season, the public began to overvalue the 49ers (now the Saints are the overvalued team). They also played four of their last six games on the road and four of their last six games without star inside linebacker Patrick Willis who is healthy for this game. In those four late season ATS losses (for which the Predictalator went 3-1 ATS picking those games), San Francisco failed to cover by a total of 13.5 points (essentially a field goal a game). In the team's two late season covers, the 49ers beat the St. Louis Rams and Pittsburgh Steelers at home by a combined score of 46-3 (covering by 21 combined points). Overall, at home, against a schedule that featured four teams that had .500 or better records overall, San Francisco out-scored its opponents by an average score of 27.6-10.9.

As currently constructed, San Francisco would rank sixth overall in our NFL Team Rankings. The 49ers are above average in every NFL efficiency category we publish as well as those we do not including special teams, coaching, penalties and turnovers. The offense is 14th in passing efficiency and 14th in rushing efficiency. The defense, one of the top three in the league (with Patrick Willis back and assumed to be healthy), is the best against the run (by a significant margin actually) and fifth best against the pass. In San Francisco and with an extra week to prepare, expect head coach Jim Harbaugh to play this game at his tempo, one that champions defense and discipline, while keeping the team in games against superior teams (and shutting down inferior teams).

New Orleans has clearly been impressive as the best overall offense (top five in both passing and rushing efficiency) in the NFL this season. While San Francisco is a top six overall team in the league, they would rank fourth among the NFC playoff participants, with Green Bay and New Orleans looking like the best two remaining teams from either conference. That's not enough to expect a win by more than a field goal in this scenario.

New Orleans would be favored by at least a field goal over any team in the NFL at home. Against the San Francisco 49ers, the Saints would be greater than a touchdown favorite to win. But that does not mean much in this scenario. The Saints struggles when having to play outside on the road are genuine. They are built for the turf inside. San Francisco is built for the mud. While it should not be rainy/muddy, too cold or windy, the conditions are still better for the 49ers. At Green Bay, Jacksonville, Carolina, Tampa Bay and Tennessee (teams that combined for one playoff spot), New Orleans went 3-2 straight-up and 2-3 against-the-spread while averaging 25.8 points to their opponents' 24.4 points. In the other 12 games New Orleans has played (all in a dome), the Saints are 11-1 straight-up and 11-1 against-the-spread while averaging 38.6 points to their opponents' 22.1. It's not the greatest sample size, but that is also a consistent trend for teams like the Saints, especially recently.

The Saints are the better team in this game, but the matchup advantages for San Francisco neutralize that edge. According 50,000 games played by the Predictalator, in the only game that is not a regular season rematch this weekend, New Orleans wins 51.3% of the time and by an average score of 24.4-24.1. As 3.5 point underdogs at home, San Francisco covers the spread 57.5% of the time, a confidence rating that would warrant a $54 play from a normal $50 player. The total line (47.5) appears appropriate and is unplayable.

Paul's Pick: Denver +13.5 @ New England (Covers 55.2%)
Pay less attention to the score and more attention to what happened and how it happened. That is a good general rule of thumb when handicapping teams, especially that will be playing again in a rematch after a previous meeting, but it particularly applies to this weekend's Broncos @ Patriots game.

In the first matchup, New England won 41-23 in Denver, covering the six point line by 12 points. We were on Denver's side (to cover) and I still do not think that was the wrong way to look at this game. In that matchup, Denver averaged 6.8 yards-per-play to New England's 6.3. The Broncos ran for 252 yards on 31 carries (a ridiculous 8.1 yards-per-carry) and Tim Tebow completed 50% (a number his has only reached in three of 12 starts this year) of his passes for 194 yards and 8.8 yards-per-pass (his second highest output before last week's Wild Card game). New England averaged 3.9 yards-per-carry and Tom Brady had 9.4 yards-per-pass. The final result had everything to do with three fumbles lost by the Denver Broncos - a stat that can often be attributed largely to luck (the ball bouncing the wrong/right way). With just eight recovered fumbles in their 15 other games, New England has not shown a propensity to excel in this area this season. Despite taking significant hits on just about every play, Tebow has only lost two fumbles in 23 NFL games. Denver did lead the league in fumbles lost this year (again, partially associated with luck), but only eight of those fumbles lost came in the ten other games that Tebow started (not a great number, yet better than 17 FL in 16 games).

It's likely that Denver breaks even if not wins the turnover battle this time around against New England. If that happens, there is not nearly as much that separates these teams as the almost two touchdown spread suggests. Denver has a genuine opportunity to put points on the board and keep this game to around single digits.

During the Tim Tebow as a starting quarterback era, Denver is 8-4 straight-up and 7-5 against-the-spread. On the road, the Broncos are 5-1 SU and 5-1 ATS in that stretch. Overall, Denver has played the 12th most difficult NFL schedule this year, yet did not win a game (or even cover the spread) over a playoff participant until last week. As presently playing, the Broncos rank 15th in passing efficiency, second in rushing efficiency, 23rd against the pass and 14th against the run in our strength-of-schedule-adjusted NFL Team Rankings. New England, the third-best team overall, ranks second in passing efficiency, 18th in rushing efficiency, 28th against the pass and 18th against the run. Neither defenses are above average and both offenses have an opportunity (in different ways) to succeed.

According to 50,000 games played by the Predictalator, New England wins over Denver at home 78.1% of the time and by an average score of 30.9-19.4. As 13.5 point underdogs that lose by about eleven points, Denver covers the spread 55.2% of the time, a weak play - our weakest ATS opinion of the weekend - but still one that would warrant a $30 play from a normal $50 player. The total (50.5) is appropriate and unplayable.

NFL Playoffs
The Predictalator uses current rosters and strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player stats to play, one play at a time, the NFL Playoffs bracket 50,000 times before it's actually played. For this analysis, we are tracking how likely a team is to make it to any level of the NFL Playoffs. The rest of the NFL Playoffs are played all the way through individually, with the team that wins each game in that instance advancing. The percentages in the table below represent the team's likelihood of advancing to that round.

The Green Bay Packers are still our favorites to win the Super Bowl, though, with strong teams in the conference still around (and looking even stronger than expected), the team's Super Bowl chances have slipped slightly from winning 23.7% of the time to winning 22.9% of the time (had all favorites won last week, than number would have gone down even more). Green Bay, which will get two home games before the Super Bowl if they keep winning, are followed in the conference by the third seeded New Orleans Saints, who we are projecting to win the Super Bowl (15.9%) almost twice as often as the second-seeded San Francisco 49ers (8.7%). New Orleans ranks as the fourth-most likely Super Bowl champion overall and could have jumped up higher had Denver not won over Pittsburgh and the path been more difficult for the AFC's top two seeds. The remaining NFC playoff participant, the New York Giants, who dominated the Atlanta Falcons in last week's 24-2 victory, rank just behind the 49ers with an 8.1% chance to win the Super Bowl. The Packers still win the Super Bowl more than Denver, the New York Giants and Houston combined. Overall, with the loss by Pittsburgh, a potential AFC favorite had the team won (and no upsets within the NFC thus far), the NFC is now 55.6% likely to win the Super Bowl, which is up from 51.3% last week. Green Bay, New Orleans and New York are currently at least 50% likely to win the Super Bowl if they get there. At this point, no AFC team is greater than 50% likely to win the Super Bowl if it gets there.

There is a change atop the AFC ranks due to an upset last week that prevents what would have likely been a predicted "upset" this week. The best AFC team with respect to its likelihood to win the Super Bowl is now the New England Patriots, which win it all 18.9% of the time, the second-highest total overall. Getting to play Denver this week is a much easier draw than Pittsburgh would have been, accounting for that shift. The Patriots are closely followed by the Baltimore Ravens at 15.8% - almost identical to their chances going into last week. The Houston Texans face a tough road, literally, with two likely road games against formidable opponents very likely standing in the team's way before the Super Bowl (a Denver @ Houston AFC Championship Game is only 8.1% likely), yet still win the Super Bowl 7.5% of the time. Denver which was a 3:1 underdog in our numbers last week, tripled its likelihood to make and win the Super Bowl with the Broncos win over the Steelers. Still, the Broncos only have a 1.4% chance to win it all. Either New England or Baltimore represents the AFC in the Super Bowl 76.7% of the time.

Interesting Super Bowl matchups and their relative likelihoods include: Most Likely - New England Patriots vs. Green Bay Packers occurs 15.9%, All-Harbaugh - Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers occurs 6.7%, Highest-Scoring - New England Patriots vs. New Orleans Saints occurs 11.2%, Lowest-Scoring/Western Teams - Denver Broncos vs. San Francisco 49ers occurs 1.0%, East Coast Showdown/2008 Rematch - New England Patriots - New York Giants occurs 6.6%, Least Likely - Denver Broncos vs. New York Giants occurs 398 of 50,000 times.

NFL Playoff Odds (based on rest of 2012 NFL Playoffs played 50,000 times)