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For each Saturday during the College Football season, Paul Bessire thoroughly breaks down the top three ATS plays. See Predictalator Picks for these games.
ATS Lock of the Week: Iowa -9 vs. Northern Illinois (Covers 61.1%)
In what may be the game most impacted by Hurricane Isaac this weekend, I would rather take my chances with the middle-of-the-pack Big Ten team that may not have much running back depth, but returns a very productive starting quarterback than a middle-of-the-pack MAC team with a new starting quarterback, running back and ENTIRE offensive line. Weather related or not, people seemed to have picked up on this notion. The line on this game opened at Iowa -6 (which almost broke the Predictalator the first time I ran it), but is now at -9 in most places and even up to -10 in some. In this case, the move is appropriate, yet still not extreme enough. For this game, it is very important to leverage the Play Analyzer (or Customizable Predictalator) to review the value of the play on the consensus feed and (new this year) easily look at the impact of the line move a half a point in either direction.
This pick has more to do with the turnover on the offensive side of the ball for Northern Illinois than it does with anything related to Iowa. Former Huskies starting quarterback Chandler Harnish, who accounted for 4,595 total yards and 39 TDs last season (11,927 total yards and 92 TDs in his career) is fighting for a roster spot on the Indianapolis Colts. His former teammate, Jasmin Hopkins, who rushed for 956 yards last season is gone, as are all five starting offensive linemen from last season (they entered camp with one returning starter, Logan Pegram, but he broke his leg in camp). Last year, we were incredibly successful picking on Arizona's zero career start (to enter the season) offensive line, especially in the early season (as seen below, this will change) and we look forward to exploiting a similar team (which has further weaknesses at QB and RB) early this year.
What we do know about Iowa is that the running back position is a mess (a sophomore converted wide receiver and a true freshman essentially make up the entirety of the depth chart), but that the team is strong at the quarterback position and along both lines as is typically the case. Add in four of the top six tacklers returning from the defensive back seven and this team should be ready to go early in the season against a clearly inferior team with too many question marks offensively. This may not end up being a repeat of last year's Soldier Field "classic" in which NIU lost to Wisconsin 49-7 (we certainly do not project Iowa to be smellin' roses this season), but, given how much weaker this Northern Illinois roster looks right now as compared to last year, it may be close to that.
According to 50,000 simulations by the Predictalator, Iowa wins at Soldier Field over Northern Illinois 73.3% of the time and by an average score of 35.1-19.2 As nine point favorites that win by more than two touchdowns on average, the Hawkeyes cover the spread 61.1%, which qualifies as our first Lock of the Week of the season and would justify a $92 play from a normal $50 player. Despite the potential for rain and the worries with NIU, the teams still play at a fast enough pace and allow enough big plays (the Huskies gave up 38+ points five times last season) to cover the OVER 50 as a "half-bet" play (with a $38 recommendation for a normal $50 player).
Other ATS Top Play: Arizona -10 vs. Toledo (Covers 59.4%)
Last season, with zero career starts on the offensive line entering the season (and little more than a big, athletic, would-be NFL backup quarterback on the roster), Arizona went 3-8 against-the-spread (yeah, we have those numbers now). We went against Arizona with four of our Paul's Picks and went 3-1 ATS in those games. Needless to say, I spent a lot of time writing about this offensive line. And I will do so again now...
This season, every starting offensive linemen from 2011 returns to help Rich Rodriguez implement his spread offense. Along with them, senior quarterback Matt Scott, who is 5-0 in his career as a starter for the Wildcats, and former Texas Longhorn turned potential Arizona star wideout Dan Buckner, should provide this team with an explosive offense from Week 1. Defensively, while a transition to the 3-3-5 defense popularized by Rodriguez and Bill Stewart at West Virginia is a concern, there is a considerable amount of experience and talent in the defensive backfield to help prevent Toledo (often a "Rob Deer" home run or strikeout offense) from hitting many big plays.
With 2011 Offensive Coordinator Matt Campbell inheriting the head coaching reigns from Tim Beckman (now at Illinois), Toledo may be going through a coaching change as well, but it's the players that are changing that signify the real problem for the Rockets at this point in the season. Just FOUR starters return on each side of the ball for Toledo. Among the players that have departed are the top two rushers, four of the top five receivers, three offensive linemen, eight of the top 11 tacklers, and the kicker. Sure, both quarterbacks who saw starts last season - Terrence Owens and Austin Dantin - are back and were impressive against the porous MAC defenses last season, but they both cannot help this team at the same time.
Toledo was 8-4 ATS in an 8-4 season last year. Against-the-spread records do not always alternate from year-to-year, but it is far more likely that they do than that they stay the same (given time to review a full season of information, markets often overreact to what was undervalued the previous season, causing that to be overvalued the next season - and vice versa). Also, despite some recent road games of note (like at Ohio State in 2011), Toledo is a far better home team than road team.
In 50,000 simulations of this game, Arizona wins at home 63.4% of the time and by an average score of 43.7-25.1. As ten point favorites over Toledo, the Wildcats cover the spread 59.4% of the time, which is strong enough to wager $74 for a normal $50 wagerer. In all of our sports, it has held true that, when we have a strong opinion on both the total and the side, those totals and sides perform better than when that is not the case. In the Toledo @ Arizona game - one in which both defenses allowed more than 31 points/game last year - the OVER (61) is our top "half-bet" over/under play of the week, covering 56.5% of the time, which translates to a $43 play for a normal $50 player.
Other ATS Top Play: Auburn +3.5 vs. Clemson (Covers 58.4%)
In a 38-24 win at home over Auburn last season, Clemson's breakout freshman wide receiver Sammy Watkins had ten catches for 155 yards and two touchdowns. Technically, completely removing the now suspended Watkins' performance from that game and eliminating Clemson's tremendous home field advantage to play this game on a neutral field (in Atlanta), Auburn would win that game, right?
That's not exactly what is happening in these projections, but it's almost as simple as that. In 2011, Auburn returned just three offensive and three defensive starters from a BCS National Championship team. In Week 3, the team played its first road game of the season against a Clemson roster that added Watkins to an offense that returned nine other starting players. Auburn got out to a 14-0 lead the young secondary started to crack and Watkins and his quarterback took advantage.
This season, with nine returning starters and 11 highly touted (top 50 at their positions coming out of high school) prospects in the two-deep depth chart, Auburn has one of the most experienced and physically talented defenses in the country. Auburn also seems to have bona fide weapons at RB and QB with Onterio McCalebb and Kiehl Frazier, even though neither was the most common starter last season. Meanwhile, in addition to replacing Watkins, Clemson has three new offensive linemen and three new defensive linemen to break in against the size and speed of their SEC opponents. Oh yeah, and that defense gave up 70 points to West Virginia in last year's Orange Bowl (an easy point to make, but it has to be mentioned).
In November, Clemson may have the better "Tigers" team, but right now this is about as even as it gets. Auburn finds itself as an underdog by more than a field goal. We say that it's more likely to stay within about a field goal either way. In 50,000 games played by the Predictalator, Auburn wins outright in an upset 53.1% of the time and by an average score of 26-24. As 3.5 point underdogs that win straight-up, Auburn covers the spread 58.4% of the time, a "normal" play that specifically warrants a $63 play from a normal $50 player. Similar to the games above, this game has a strong opinion on the side and the total (always a good thing to us). Likely due to the aforementioned Orange Bowl, the total appears inflated at 55.5 points. The two teams combine to come in UNDER that number 57.6% of the time.
College Football Picks Pages:
August 30: Predictalator Picks Paul's Analysis
August 31: Predictalator Picks
September 1: Predictalator Picks Paul's Analysis
September 2: Predictalator Picks
September 3: Predictalator Picks
Customize the Predictalator - Play the Games with Any Lines
Buy Picks