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Learn more about the Predictalator Picks, Customizable Predictalator and Play Analyzer with this Tutorial Video.
For each Thursday during the College Football season, Paul Bessire thoroughly breaks down the top weekday play. See Predictalator Picks for this game.
ATS Top Play: Washington State +13 vs. Brigham Young (Covers 60.9%)
In Mike Leach we trust? It may be a little early to totally jump on board the Washington State bandwagon, but the numbers support WSU having a vastly improved team year-over-year regardless of the coaching staff (and Leach should make them even better - offensively at least). In our projections, Washington State, which returns seven starters defensively, multiple quarterbacks with starting experience and very strong playmaking weapons at receiver and running back, rebounds from a 4-8 season to go 6-6 this year and earn a berth in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl. Defensively, Washington State is still a below average FBS (and a well below average BCS-AQ) team, but there is enough offense to mask some of those deficiencies and, with some stability, especially along the defensive line and in the secondary, should lead to improvement from last season.
We actually like BYU as well. Bronco Mendenhall's team went 10-3 last season and is 66-24 in his tenure. The team also returns seven defensive starters, a starting quarterback and some playmakers on the edges . BYU enters the season ranked #41 overall and as the fourth best BCS non-AQ team at this point. A strong defense (#32 ranked overall and very balanced) and the solid play of Riley Nelson lead BYU to a 9-3 record and a berth in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl... against these same Washington State Cougars.
Independent of schedules or home field advantage, these look like fairly equal teams. BYU is playing at home and does not have to worry about a coaching transition like Washington State does, but that may not mean that much. BYU's home field advantage ranks below average in FBS (#70 in our research) and, by the same analysis, Washington State has not had a recent history of playing much worse on the road than at home (#110 home field advantage). While this may be an early season test for our new home field advantage metrics, the underlying theme to this pick is that 13 points is too much for a favorite to lay in this kind of matchup.
In 50,000 simulations by the Predictalator, in a battle of Cougars (which may not be the last of the season), BYU wins at home over Washington State 51.3% of the time and by an average score of 30.9-28.2. Washington State, as a 13 point underdog, covers the spread 60.9% of the time, which would warrant an $89 play from a normal $50 player. The UNDER (65) covers just 54.5% of the time, which is a "light play" this season.
College Football Picks Pages:
August 30: Predictalator Picks Paul's Analysis
August 31: Predictalator Picks
September 1: Predictalator Picks Paul's Analysis
September 2: Predictalator Picks
September 3: Predictalator Picks
Customize the Predictalator - Play the Games with Any Lines
Buy Picks
Learn more about the Predictalator Picks, Customizable Predictalator and Play Analyzer with this Tutorial Video. And check out more regarding what is new for football this seasona (and how we have improved the simulation engines) in this Blog Entry.