MLB All-Star DFS Comparison
With all of the All-Star starters and reserves being chosen last night I thought it would be fun to take a look at how well these players have done in the daily fantasy realm this season. I'll be comparing the AL and NL squads by position to see who would make the best lineup in terms of DFS standards. Each comparison will be of the two starters, and if a better alternative lies within the reserves, that will be noted.
AL Starter – Salvador Perez NL Starter – Buster Posey
Posey takes the first matchup when it comes to daily fantasy output. He sits atop the DraftKings leaderboard in points among catchers and is in second among FanDuel catchers (Victor Martinez is listed as 1B in DraftKings). Perez sits three spots behind Posey on both leaderboards, but the point differential is what matters. Posey has accumulated 168 more points on FanDuel than Perez, and 107 more points on DraftKings. Posey enters the All-Star Game performing much better in recent weeks as well, averaging 12.9 points per game in FanDuel and 9.6 points per game on DraftKings over the last 15 days. Perez sits at 3.4 and 2.6 points per game, respectively.
AL Starter – Eric Hosmer NL Starter – Anthony Rizzo
The National League takes the edge in this matchup as well. Rizzo sits at number five on both the FanDuel and DraftKings leaderboards among first basemen, while Hosmer sits at 10 and 9, respectively. Rizzo has a 139 point edge over Hosmer on FanDuel, and an 82 point edge on DraftKings. Both, however, aren't the best options fantasy wise at their position. Paul Goldschmidt sits atop the NL leaderboard with 53 more points on FanDuel and 48 more on DraftKings than Rizzo. Meanwhile, Edwin Encarnacion sits high above Hosmer on the AL side, leading him by 212 points on FanDuel and 128 on DraftKings.
AL Starter – Jose Altuve NL Starter – Ben Zobrist
There isn't much discussion to be had here, as Altuve is head and shoulders above any other second basemen in the league when it comes to fantasy scoring. Altuve sits 160 points above second place on FanDuel, and a whopping 302 points above Zobrist, who sits in 7th. Altuve comes into the All-Star game in good form, leading all second-basemen in average points over the last 15 days in both FanDuel and DraftKings. He comes in averaging 16.2 points per game on FanDuel and 12.7 on DraftKings, while Zobrist sits at 7.5 and 5.6 points per game, respectively. Zobrist actually sits behind three other NL second basemen on both leaderboards – Matt Carpenter, Daniel Murphy, and Jean Segura. Carpenter and Murphy are both reserves for the NL, and in this case it shows Matt Carpenter should be the starter with his DFS qualifications.
AL Starter – Manny Machado NL Starter – Kris Bryant
Kris Bryant takes the edge in this matchup. He leads Machado in scoring by 104 points on FanDuel and 57 on DraftKings. Bryant also takes the edge recently, averaging 18.1 points per game on FanDuel and 13.3 points per game on DraftKings over the last 15 days. Machado falls short of that with 12.9 points per game on FanDuel and 9.9 on DraftKings. Machado also falls short of fellow All-Star Josh Donaldson, who is the only player ahead of Bryant on both leaderboards. In fact, Donaldson is the highest scoring player at any position on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
AL Starter – Xander Bogaerts NL Starter – Addison Russell
This is probably the most lopsided matchup we have among healthy starters, as Russell seems to be voted in strictly because of the Cubs fans voting for their hometown player. Bogaerts sits atop the leaderboard of both FanDuel and DraftKings (ignoring Machado who is double listed), while Russell sits at 14th on FanDuel and 15th on DraftKings. There are eight starting shortstops above Russell on those leaderboards, and one of them is All-Star reserve Corey Seager. Seager seems to have been robbed for an All-Star start in this circumstance, sitting second behind Bogaerts on both leaderboards, over 200 points ahead of Russell on both as well.
Outfield (Compared using votes)
AL Starter – Mike Trout NL Starter – Bryce Harper
Trout has a commanding lead over Harper heading into the All-Star game in the daily fantasy world. Trout has had a better season all around and it shows in the numbers. He leads Harper by 169 points on FanDuel and 137 points on DraftKings. In fact, Harper sits in 8th and 10th place, respectively, on those two leaderboards. Carlos Gonzalez leads Harper in scoring on DraftKings, but is behind him on FanDuel. Other than that, every player ahead of Harper is from the American League. Trout comes into the All-Star Game leading all outfielders in points per game over his last 15 days, averaging 16.9 on FanDuel and 13.2 on DraftKings. He has been carrying the Angels offense over the last two weeks.
AL Starter – Jackie Bradley Jr. NL Starter – Yoenis Cespedes
Jackie Bradley Jr. sits six spots ahead of Cespedes on both the FanDuel and DraftKings leaderboards. However, with so many outfielders, they aren't separated by very many points on either leaderboard. Bradley is 61 points ahead of Cespedes on FanDuel, and only 38 points ahead of him on DraftKings. After both of them posted great starts to the season, both are coasting into the All-Star Game, each averaging about 13 points on FanDuel and 10 points on DraftKings over the past 15 days. There are two outfielders on the NL All-Star team who could replace Cespedes in Carlos Gonzalez and Marcell Ozuna, and Ian Desmond and Mark Trumbo both sit ahead of Bradley Jr. on the American League leaderboard.
AL Starter – Mookie Betts NL Starter – Dexter Fowler
Another Cub, another extremely lopsided comparison. Most of it has to do with the fact Fowler has been on the disabled list for the past couple weeks with a hamstring injury, the rest of it doing with the fact that Betts leads all outfielders in scoring on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Betts leads all outfielders in FanDuel with 1,145 points, four more than Mike Trout, and has 887 points on DraftKings, 16 more than Trout. Fowler, on the other hand, sits in the mid-30s on both outfield leaderboards when it comes to total points. He does sit in the top 20 in average points scored on both formats, but there are still many NL outfielders above him. Overall, Betts would have the advantage against any other outfielder, but Fowler certainly does not deserve the All-Star start according to his DFS output.
Final DFS All-Star Starting Lineups
American League National League
C – Salvador Perez C – Buster Posey
1B – Edwin Encarnacion 1B – Paul Goldschmidt
2B – Jose Altuve 2B – Matt Carpenter
3B – Josh Donaldson 3B – Kris Bryant
SS – Xander Bogaerts SS – Corey Seager
OF – Mookie Betts OF – Bryce Harper
OF – Mike Trout OF – Carlos Gonzalez
OF – Ian Desmond OF – Marcell Ozuna
Looking at our two final lineups based on DFS production, we find the American League did a relatively accurate job of voting in the correct players. Only three positions were changed, with Hosmer being the biggest outlier from his replacement. In the National League lineup, we see that only three original players remain in Posey, Bryant, and Harper. Of course, neither of these methods are the best in choosing the best All-Stars, looking at their DFS value is a new and interesting way to see who would make the best All-Star starting lineup.
|Most Bang for Your Buck (07/13/16)|
|Worst Offenses in Baseball (6/29)|
The Predictalator is the most advanced sports forecasting software available today because it has the ability to account for all of the relevant statistical interactions of the players, coaches, officials, home field advantage and weather in each game.
Picks for every game, including our Play Value Key and Calculator recommendations for optimal bankroll management and access to the Play Analyzer can be purchased in the Shop or by game here.
04/24/2017 Highlight: With baseball season now in full swing, we can leverage our ResultsFinder tool to profile our season-to-date numbers. MLB sides, totals, and run lines have all been profitable to date, generating a total of $580 for an average $50 bettor. There are have been a total of nine "normal" or better positions year-to-date, and those positions are a sparkling 8-1 (88.9%), producing $393 in total profits. There is a ton of variance in baseball and there will be ups-and-downs along the way, but the early returns on the Predictalator's baseball projections are promising.
The NBA Playoffs tipped off this week and the Predictalator is off to a stellar start. With a full season's worth of data to work with, the Predictalator has historically fared very well in the postseason across all sports, and this year has been no different. NBA playoff sides are 9-7 (56.3%) ATS, while NBA playoff totals are 15-9 (62.5%) through Sunday's action. A $50 bettor would have amassed $401 in total profits through the first week of the postseason alone.
Check out the Shop now to learn more.