New User? Sign Up / Forgot Your Password?
All Live
Projections
    All Live Projections

    Adjusted Lines (07/08/15)

    By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
    Adjusting the Game of the Year lines for Home Field Advantage.



    The college football season is almost upon us. In preparation for the upcoming season, we have analyzed the impact of home field advantage and previewed the Game of the Year lines.

    How would the Game of the Year lines change if we applied our adjustments for home field advantage?

    We assume that the oddsmakers, when creating the lines, accounted for home field advantage, which means three points for the hosting team.

    From our analysis we know that some stadiums could mean much more than three points while others do not help much at all (the expected difference in the margin of victory between Arkansas and Wisconsin from one stadium to the next, for instance, could be around 12 points, while the location does not really matter when Central Michigan plays Bowling Green).

    Below we have updated each spread accounting for our analysis of home field advantage, which is the non-standardized home field advantage with projected pace built in. It is important to note, that while our numbers suggest an adjustment to the spread would be warranted in some games, it is not an endorsement to wager on a specific team based on the line movement. Actual picks with confidence and play value recommendations will be available the week of each game.

    Biggest Line Movements

    Kansas State vs. Baylor (Thursday, November 5th) - The Wildcats are listed as 12 point home dogs in Vegas, but by our numbers the Bears, if the line is appropriate and Vegas uses three points for home field advantage, should only be favored by 9.6 points in Manhattan.

    Baylor vs. Oklahoma (Saturday, November 14th) – The Bears are nearly two touchdown favorites (-13) over perennial Big 12 powerhouse Oklahoma. After adjusting for home field advantage, Baylor becomes even more of a favorite. The Sooners go on the road to Waco as 15.5 point underdogs.

    Kansas vs. Kansas State (Saturday, November 28th) - The Jayhawks have had five straight losing campaigns while the Wildcats have been to five straight bowl games. Kansas State is a 24 point road favorite in the annual Governor's Cup but our numbers imply Kansas should “only” be a 21.4 point home dog, the biggest adjustment in any game.

    The astute observer will have noticed that each of the teams involved in the above mentioned biggest line movements are members of the Big 12 Conference. The Big 12 has the highest rank in home field advantage of any Power Conference and each of the listed teams (Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State and Oklahoma) rank in the top twelve in home field advantage.

    Of the 164 Games of the Year, only 47 matchups were adjusted by one point or more. There were 24 games that had virtually no adjustment made, a tenth of a point or less.

    Adjusted Game of the Year Lines

    Week Away Home Home Spread Adjusted Home Spread Adjustment
    1 Michigan Utah -4 -3.8 0.2
    1 Washington Boise State -13 -13.7 0.7
    1 Virginia UCLA -17 -17.6 0.6
    1 Texas Notre Dame -7.5 -6.3 1.2
    1 BYU Nebraska -6 -4.8 1.2
    1 Ohio State Virginia Tech +16 +17.6 1.6
    1 TCU Minnesota +18 +18.4 0.4
    2 Oregon State Michigan -14 -14.4 0.4
    2 Oklahoma Tennessee -3 -4.2 1.2
    2 Oregon Michigan State -1 -0.5 0.5
    2 LSU Mississippi State +3 +2 1.0
    2 Marshall Ohio University +3.5 +2.4 1.1
    2 UCLA UNLV +32 +31 1.0
    2 Iowa Iowa State +4.5 +4.4 0.1
    2 Boise State BYU +6 +6 0.0
    2 Notre Dame Virginia +9 +8.9 0.1
    3 UNLV Michigan -33 -34.3 1.3
    3 BYU UCLA -14 -14.0 0.0
    3 South Carolina Georgia -11 -11.3 0.3
    3 Ole Miss Alabama -9.5 -9.4 0.1
    3 Auburn LSU -4 -4.5 0.5
    3 Stanford USC -4 -3.8 0.2
    3 Georgia Tech Notre Dame -2 -1.6 0.4
    3 Nebraska Miami, Fla. PK +0.8 0.8
    3 Clemson Louisville +3 +3.4 0.4
    4 Utah Oregon -14 -12.9 1.1
    4 Mississippi State Auburn -8 -8.4 0.4
    4 BYU Michigan -7 -7.3 0.3
    4 Oklahoma State Texas -2.5 -1.6 0.9
    4 Cincinnati Memphis -2 -1.1 0.9
    4 UCLA Arizona PK -0.5 0.5
    4 USC Arizona +1 +0.6 0.4
    4 Tennessee Florida +2.5 +2.8 0.3
    4 LSU Syracuse +20 +20.2 0.2
    4 Boise State Virginia +9 +8.5 0.5
    5 Army Penn State -28 -28.0 0.0
    5 Texas TCU -21 -19.0 2.0
    5 UNLV Nevada -14 -15.0 1.0
    5 South Carolina Missouri -11 -10.9 0.1
    5 West Virginia Oklahoma -10 -10.6 0.6
    5 Pittsburgh Virginia Tech -9 -7.2 1.8
    5 Arizona State UCLA -6 -6.9 0.3
    5 Arizona Stanford -7.5 -6.9 0.6
    5 Mississippi State Texas A&M -6.5 -6.7 0.2
    5 Kansas State Oklahoma State -4 -5.3 1.3
    5 Notre Dame Clemson -3.5 -4.0 0.5
    5 Miami, Fla. Cincinnati -2.5 -2.5 0.0
    5 Arkansas Tennessee -1 -2.4 1.4
    5 Alabama Georgia PK +0.2 0.2
    5 Oregon Colorado +16 +15.8 0.2
    5 Ole Miss Florida +6 +6.5 0.5
    6 Washington USC -19 -19.5 0.5
    6 Navy Notre Dame -14 -13.4 0.6
    6 Miami Florida State -14.5 -13.2 1.3
    6 Florida Missouri -10 -9.0 1.0
    6 Arkansas Alabama -7.5 -8.6 1.1
    6 Virginia Pittsburgh -6 -5.5 0.5
    6 Oklahoma State West Virginia -5 -5.1 0.1
    6 Georgia Tech Clemson -3 -3.0 0.0
    6 Georgia Tennessee PK -0.1 0.1
    6 Wisconsin Nebraska +1 +0.4 0.6
    6 TCU Kansas State +11 +10.8 0.2
    6 Boise State Colorado State +12 +11.2 0.8
    6 LSU South Carolina +8 +7.1 0.9
    7 Penn State Ohio State -19 -18.6 0.4
    7 West Virginia Baylor -17 -18.2 1.2
    7 Florida LSU -14 -14.1 0.1
    7 Pittsburgh Georgia Tech -14 -13.0 1.0
    7 UNLV Fresno State -12 -12.9 0.9
    7 Louisville Florida State -12 -10.0 2.0
    7 Missouri Georgia -8.5 -7.9 0.6
    7 Virginia Tech Miami, Fla. -6 -4.6 1.4
    7 UCLA Stanford -4.5 -4.4 0.1
    7 Arizona State Utah -2 -1.4 0.6
    7 USC Notre Dame PK -0.5 0.5
    7 Oklahoma Kansas State +3 +1.1 1.9
    7 Oregon Washington +15 +15 0.0
    7 TCU Iowa State +29 +29.5 0.5
    7 Michigan State Michigan +4.5 +4.1 0.4
    7 Alabama Texas A&M +7 +7.4 0.4
    7 Auburn Kentucky +9 +9.0 0.0
    7 Boise State Utah State +9.5 +9.5 0.0
    8 Tennessee Alabama -10 -10.1 0.1
    8 Auburn Arkansas -6.5 -7.7 1.2
    8 Utah USC -7 -6.4 0.6
    8 Texas A&M Ole Miss -4 -3.7 0.3
    8 Kansas State Texas -2 -1.7 0.3
    8 Florida State Georgia Tech PK +1.6 1.6
    8 Clemson Miami, Fla. +4.5 +4.2 0.3
    9 West Virginia TCU -20 -19.0 1.0
    9 Oregon State Utah -16 -14.6 1.4
    9 South Carolina Texas A&M -10 -10.1 0.1
    9 Central Florida Cincinnati -6 -6.0 0.0
    9 Ole Miss Auburn -4 -3.9 0.1
    9 Georgia Tech Virginia +10 +10.4 0.4
    9 Boise State UNLV +28.5 +27.5 1.0
    9 Oregon Arizona State +5 +4.7 0.3
    10 LSU Alabama -9 -9.4 0.4
    10 Arizona USC -7.5 -7.9 0.4
    10 Virginia Miami, Fla. -6.5 -6.4 0.1
    10 Mississippi State Missouri -6 -5.9 0.1
    10 Northern Illinois Toledo -3 -3.5 0.5
    10 Arkansas Ole Miss -1 -2.2 1.2
    10 Florida State Clemson -2 -1.3 0.7
    10 Auburn Texas A&M +1.5 +1.8 0.3
    10 TCU Oklahoma State +11 +11.3 0.3
    10 Notre Dame Pittsburgh +3 +3.4 0.4
    10 Michigan State Nebraska +6 +7.1 1.1
    10 Baylor Kansas State +12 +9.6 2.4
    11 Oklahoma Baylor -13 -15.5 2.5
    11 Virginia Tech Georgia Tech -9.5 -7.8 1.7
    11 Arkansas LSU -1.5 -3.3 1.8
    11 Florida South Carolina -2.5 -2.4 0.1
    11 Utah Arizona -3 -2.0 1.0
    11 Oregon Stanford PK +0.7 0.7
    11 USC Colorado +12 +11.3 0.7
    11 Alabama Mississippi State +9 +8.7 0.3
    12 Fresno State BYU -18 -17.9 0.1
    12 Michigan State Ohio State -14 -13.3 0.7
    12 California Stanford -13 -12.6 0.4
    12 Mississippi State Arkansas -10 -11.7 1.7
    12 Michigan Penn State -4.5 -5.3 0.8
    12 Arizona Arizona State -3 -3.4 0.4
    12 Tennessee Missouri -2.5 -2.2 0.3
    12 LSU Ole Miss PK -0.5 0.5
    12 UCLA - Utah +1 +1.5 0.5
    12 San Diego State UNLV +16 +15.2 0.8
    12 TCU Oklahoma +5 +4.7 0.3
    12 Georgia Tech Miami, Fla. +6 +6.6 0.6
    12 Baylor Oklahoma State +10 +8.1 1.9
    13 Oregon State Oregon -22.5 -22.0 0.5
    13 Vanderbilt Tennessee -17 -15.9 1.1
    13 Colorado Utah -13.5 -12.8 0.7
    13 Penn State Michigan State -12 -11.6 0.4
    13 Baylor Colorado -6 -7.9 1.9
    13 Texas A&M LSU -7.5 -7.8 0.3
    13 Missouri Arkansas -7 -7.7 0.7
    13 Iowa Nebraska -7 -6.3 0.7
    13 North Carolina NC State -6 -5.4 0.6
    13 UCLA USC -3 -3.9 0.9
    13 Washington State Washington -4.5 -3.9 0.6
    13 Notre Dame Stanford -3 -2.5 0.5
    13 BYU Utah State PK +1 1.0
    13 Georgia Georgia Tech +1 +1.6 0.6
    13 Ole Miss Mississippi state +2 +1.6 0.4
    13 Oklahoma Oklahoma State +3 +1.7 1.3
    13 Ohio State Michigan +16 +15.5 0.5
    13 Clemson South Carolina +3 +2.2 0.8
    13 Kansas State Kansas +24 +21.4 2.6
    13 Louisville Kentucky +2.5 +3.2 0.7
    13 Alabama Auburn +3.5 +3.7 0.2
    13 Virginia Tech Virginia +4 +5.3 1.3
    13 Florida State Florida +4 +5.7 1.7
    14 Texas Baylor -18 -18.3 0.3
    14 West Virginia Kansas State -5 -5.6 0.6

    Print This Article
    PREVIOUS ARTICLE
    4-Team Playoff Odds (07/09/15)
    NEXT ARTICLE
    Win Total (07/06/15)
    Want More Tips and Information? Click To Register!

    COMMENTS

    SEARCH BLOGS

    ARCHIVE

    Ad

    The Predictalator

    07/24/2017 Highlight: Football season is slowly approaching and as we use our ResultsFinder tool to look back on previous seasons, we can see that ATS picks in the NFL regular season have topped 56% ATS four times in seven years, and have been profitable in all but one season on the site. NFL Playoff picks are also a stellar 50-25 (67% ATS) in our history.

    In college football, "normal" or better totals are 58% all-time and have been profitable in five of the previous seven years. Meanwhile, our strongest ATS pick each week in college football is 69-40 (63% ATS) all-time. With college football season win totals being posted this week, we can also note that last season, playable win total picks in went 28-19 (60% O/U) to turn a profit of $899 for a normal $50 player using our play value recommendations.

    MLB season is winding down but that hasn't stopped our models from generating insane profits. Our baseball engine is 114-92 picking baseball sides in the month of July, generating $664 in profits for an average $50 bettor. "Normal" or better sides (stronger plays) are a perfect 4-0 in July, producing $218 in profits on those plays alone.

    Check out the Shop now to learn more.

    Recommended Features

    LOGIN

    LATEST ARTICLES

    NFL Preview - In-Depth Analysis
    In the most likely Super Bowl, the New England Patriots defeat the Seattle Seahawks. Check out in-depth analysis for every team in the league.

    College Win Total Picks (5 Books) - 2017 Preview
    Over/Under Season Win Total picks are now available for every college football team at five different books.

    FIND US ONLINE


    SportsRadar


    All registered accounts are subject to our General Terms Of Service. Content is intended for informational purposes only. This is not a gambling website.

    FSTA Member 2015
    Home | The Predictalator | Blog | Privacy |  Media Contact |  B2B Solutions |  Sitemap |  Customer Support | 
    © 2010-2015 PredictionMachine.com, LLC. All rights reserved. | Site Designed by Randombell.com