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    NFL Trends Week 7 (10/21/15)

    By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
    powered by Trend Machine

    There is incredible power in understanding history. Though not predictive in nature, understanding how teams, players, leagues and markets have reacted to various scenarios for over 36 years and more than 9,000 games - as is the case with the information available in the Trend Machine for the NFL - is a tremendous supplement to any analysis of an upcoming matchup.

    Each week we will provide trends for the upcoming NFL games, some will be team specific, others situational – how often a team covers against-the-spread after covering three games in a row.

    Week 7 – Situational Trends

    All-time, teams that start 5-0 and are favorites of 9 or more points in the next game are a perfect 20-0 straight-up and 12-8 (60%) against-the-spread.

    • Games Matching this Criteria: Patriots (-9) vs. Jets.

    All-time, teams that have lost five games in a row and are home underdogs are 58-44 (57%) against-the-spread.

    • Games Matching this Criteria: Chiefs (+2) vs. Steelers.

    NFL Trends – Week 7
    (Note: In our date “All-time” goes back to 1978 or when the team joined the league.)

    Teams Spread Trend
    ATL -4.5 @ TEN Matt Ryan as a road favorite is 14-10-1 against-the-spread.
    AZ -7.5 vs. BAL All-time, the Cardinals as favorites of a touchdown or more are 9-19-1 against-the-spread.
    BAL +7.5 @ AZ Joe Flacco is 7-2 against-the-spread on Monday Night Football.
    BUF -5.5 @ JAX In all London games, the designated away team has been favored in 10 of 12 games and are 7-5 ATS.
    CAR -3 vs. PHI Cam Newton as a home favorite is 15-8 against-the-spread.
    CLE +5.5 @ STL Since 2004, when the Rams last made the playoffs, road underdogs in St. Louis are 19-10 ATS.
    DAL +3.5 @ NYG All-time, the Cowboys coming out of a bye are 18-9 against-the-spread.
    DET +2.5 vs. MIN Matthew Stafford as a home underdog is 3-7-1 ATS.
    HOU +4.5 @ MIA All-time, the Texans as road dogs in October are 8-12 against-the-spread.
    IND -4.5 vs. NO In the last 10 games as home favorites, the Colts are 7-3 ATS.
    JAX +5.5 vs. BUF This is Jacksonville's third trip to Wembley Stadium, the Jags are 0-2 straight-up and ATS when they cross the pond.
    KC +2 vs. PIT All-time, the Chiefs as home underdogs have a winning record straight-up and are 61-33-4 (65%) ATS.
    MIA -4.5 vs. HOU Ryan Tannehill as a home favorite of a field goal or more is 3-10 against-the-spread.
    MIN -2.5 @ DET All-time, the Vikings as road favorites against their NFC North brethren are 11-23 ATS.
    NE -9 vs. NYJ As a favorite of a touchdown or more against the Jets, Tom Brady is 3-7-1 ATS.
    NO +4.5 @ IND In the Drew Brees era, the Saints coming off a Thursday night football game are 2-6 against-the-spread.
    NYG -3.5 vs. DAL On a short week, after playing on Monday Night Football, Eli Manning is 8-6 against-the-spread.
    NYJ +9 @ NE All-time, the Jets as underdog of a touchdown or more are 56-41-3 (58%) against-the-spread.
    OAK +4 @ SD All-time, the Raiders coming out of a bye are 11-15-1 against-the-spread.
    PHI +3 @ CAR Under Chip Kelly, the Eagles as road underdogs are 9-3 against-the-spread.
    PIT -2 @ KC All-time, the Steelers on the road at Arrowhead are 8-4-1 against-the-spread.
    SD -4 vs. OAK Philip Rivers is 1-5 against-the-spread as home favorites against the Raiders in the last six years.
    SEA -6 @ SF Russell Wilson owns the 49ers, he is 5-0-2 against-the-spread in his career against San Francisco.
    SF +6 vs. SEA In the last 10 games as home underdogs, the 49ers are 6-3-1 against-the-spread.
    STL -5.5 vs. CLE Under Jeff Fisher, the Rams as favorites of a field goal or more are 3-7 against-the-spread.
    TB +3.5 @ WAS In the last 20 games against NFC East opponents, the Bucs are 6-13-1 against-the-spread.
    TEN +4.5 vs. ATL All-time, the Titans as home underdogs are 57-44-3 against-the-spread.
    WAS -3.5 vs. TB In the last 20 games as home favorites, the Redskins are 5-15 against-the-spread.

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