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    NFL Trends Week 6 (10/14/15)

    By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
    powered by Trend Machine



    There is incredible power in understanding history. Though not predictive in nature, understanding how teams, players, leagues and markets have reacted to various scenarios for over 36 years and more than 9,000 games - as is the case with the information available in the Trend Machine for the NFL - is a tremendous supplement to any analysis of an upcoming matchup.

    Each week we will provide trends for the upcoming NFL games, some will be team specific, others situational – how often a team covers against-the-spread after covering three games in a row.

    Week 6 – Situational Trends

    Since 2000, teams that have fired their coach during the season are 6-19 straight-up and 8-17 ATS in the next game.

    • Games Matching this Criteria: Dolphins (+2.5) @ Titans.

    All-time, teams that start 0-5 and are favorites in their next game are 4-7 against-the-spread.

    • Games Matching this Criteria: Lions (-3) vs. Bears.

    All-time, teams that start 4-0 and are favorites of a touchdown or more in the next game are 14-23-1 (38%) ATS.

    • Games Matching this Criteria: Patriots (-8) vs. Colts.

    NFL Trends – Week 6
    (Note: In our date “All-time” goes back to 1978 or when the team joined the league.)



    Teams Spread Trend
    ATL -3 @ NO Matt Ryan as a road favorite is 14-9-1 against-the-spread.
    AZ -3 @ PIT With Carson Palmer, the Cardinals as road favorites are 6-1 against-the-spread.
    BAL -2.5 @ SF All-time, road favorites in San Francisco are 29-35-1 against-the-spread.
    BUF +3.5 vs. CIN All-time, the Bills against undefeated teams with 4 or more wins are 9-6 ATS.
    CAR +7 @ SEA Cam Newton is 0-4 straight-up and against-the-spread coming out of a bye week.
    CHI +3 @ DET Jay Cutler as a road dog with the Bears against the NFC North is 2-7 against-the-spread.
    CIN -3.5 @ BUF All-time, teams that have won five games in a row and are road favorites are 43-53-1 against-the-spread.
    CLE +4 vs. DEN In the last ten games as home underdogs, the Browns are 7-3 against-the-spread.
    DEN -4 @ CLE Peyton Manning as a road favorite with the Broncos is 15-7 against-the-spread.
    DET -3 vs. CHI All-time, teams that start 0-5 are 43-34-1 against-the-spread in the next game. The Lions covered back in 2008 when they started 0-5 as well.
    GB -10 vs. SD Since 2002, when the NFL expanded to 32 teams, teams that have covered in 5 straight games and are home favorites of a touchdown or more are 3-8 against-the-spread in the next game.
    HOU -1.5 @ JAX Following a Thursday night game, the Texans are 1-5 straight-up and 2-4 against-the-spread.
    IND +8 vs. NE As an underdog, Andrew Luck is 12-11 straight-up but against the Patriots he is 0-4 straight-up and against-the-spread.
    JAX +1.5 vs. HOU In the last 20 games as home underdogs of less than a field goal, Jacksonville is 8-12 against-the-spread.
    KC +3.5 @ MIN The Chiefs are 8-2 against-ths-sread in their last ten games as road favorites.
    MIA +2.5 @ TEN All-time, the Dolphins coming off a bye and as road underdogs are 7-4-1 against-the-spread.
    MIN -3.5 vs. KC Teddy Bridgewater as a home favorite is 4-1-1 against-the-spread.
    NE -8 @ IND Tom Brady is 3-7 against-the-spread in his last ten games as a road favorite of a touchdown or more.
    NO +3 vs. ATL Drew Brees as a home underdog with the Saints is 2-0 straight-up and against-the-spread - both games were against the Falcons.
    NYG +3.5 @ PHI Eli Manning as a road underdog in Philly is 6-2-1 against-the-spread.
    NYJ -6 vs. WAS All-time, the Jets as home favorites are 71-111-5 (39%) against-the-spread.
    PHI -3.5 vs. NYG The Eagles against the Giants on Monday Night Football are 5-0 straight-up and against-the-spread.
    PIT +3 vs. AZ In the last ten games as home underdogs dating back to 2005, the Steelers are 6-3-1 ATS.
    SD +10 @ GB Teams that last played on Monday Night and then are road underdogs in Green Bay are 5-9 against-the-spread.
    SEA -7 vs. CAR Following a loss, Russell Wilson is 9-5 against-the-spread.
    SF +2.5 vs. BAL All-time, when the 49ers have lost four games in a row San Francisco is 4-11-1 against-the-spread in the next game.
    TEN -2.5 vs. MIA All-time, the Titans facing an opponent coming off a bye is 17-8-1 against-the-spread.
    WAS +6 @ NYJ All-time, road underdogs in New York of a field goal or more are 83-53-5 (61%) against-the-spread.

    powered by Trend Machine


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