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    NFL Trends Divisional (01/13/16)

    By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
    powered by Trend Machine



    There is incredible power in understanding history. Though not predictive in nature, understanding how teams, players, leagues and markets have reacted to various scenarios for over 36 years and more than 9,000 games - as is the case with the information available in the Trend Machine for the NFL - is a tremendous supplement to any analysis of an upcoming matchup.

    Each week we will provide trends for the upcoming NFL games, some will be team specific, others situational – how often a team covers against-the-spread after covering three games in a row.

    NFL Divisional Round – Situational Trends

    The last ten Wild Card teams to win in the first round of the playoffs went 4-6 straight-up and 7-2-1 against-the-spread in the Divisional Round.

    • Games Matching this Criteria: Seahawks (+3) at Panthers, Packers (+7) at Cardinals, Steelers (+7) at Broncos and Chiefs (+5) at Patriots.

    The last ten No. 1 seeds in the NFL Playoffs have gone 6-4 straight-up and 2-7-1 against-the-spread in the Divisional Round.

    • Games Matching this Criteria: Panthers (-3) vs. Seahawks and Broncos (-7) vs. Steelers.

    All-time in the playoffs, teams that won by three touchdowns or more and then are underdogs the next game went 15-27 straight-up and 16-26 against-the-spread.

    • Games Matching this Criteria: Chiefs (+5) at Patriots.

    The last ten favorites of a touchdown or greater in the Divisional Round went 7-3 straight-up but 3-6-1 against-the-spread.

    • Games Matching this Criteria: Broncos (-7) vs. Steelers and Cardinals (-7) vs. Packers.

    NFL Trends – Divisional Round
    (Note: In our date “All-time” goes back to 1978 or when the team joined the league.)



    Teams Spread Trend
    AZ -7 vs. GB Arizona has never lost at home in the playoffs: 3-0 straight-up and against-the-spread.
    The Cardinals have only been a favorite in the postseason once, they won and covered that game (30-24 vs. Atlanta 2008-09).
    Carson Palmer at home with the Cardinals is 16-4 straight-up and 12-7-1 against-the-spread.
    Palmer has played in just two postseason games, his team went 0-2 straight-up and against-the-spread in both.
    CAR -3 vs. SEA Carolina has won 11 straight at home and went 8-3 against-the-spread in those games.
    All-time in the playoffs, the Panthers at home are 3-2 straight-up and against-the-spread.
    In the postseason as favorites Carolina is 2-1 straight-up and against-the-spread.
    In the playoffs vs the NFL West, the Panthers are 2-4 straight-up and against-the-spread.
    DEN -7 vs. PIT Peyton Manning with the Broncos in the playoffs is 2-3 straight-up and 1-4 against-the-spread.
    In his postseason career, Manning as a touchdown or greater favorite is 3-4 straight-up and 2-5 against-the-spread.
    In the last ten years, the Broncos as home favorites in the playoffs are 3-3 straight-up and 2-4 against-the-spread.
    All-time, as the top seed in the AFC, Denver is 4-2 straight-up and 2-4 against-the-spread in its first game of the playoffs.
    GB +7 @ AZ The last time the Packers won a road playoff game (2010-11) the team went on to win the Super Bowl.
    Green Bay is 2-5 straight-up in the postseason when playing on the West Coast (3-3-1 ATS).
    Aaron Rodgers is 5-2 against-the-spread away from Lambea in the postseason (4-3 straight-up).
    Rodgers and the Packers are also 4-2 against-the-spread as underdogs in the playoffs (3-3 straight-up).
    KC +5 @ NE All-time, the Chiefs following a playoff win have gone 1-2 straight-up and against-the-spread in the next game.
    Kansas City is 1-9 straight-up and 3-7 against-the-spread all-time as underdogs in the postseason.
    KC is 2-8 straight-up and 4-6 against-the-spread on the road in the playoffs.
    As road underdogs in the postseason, the Chiefs have lost on average by 10.7 points
    NE -5 vs. KC Tom Brady is 21-8 straight-up in the playoffs but 13-15-1 against-the-spread.
    Brady has always been a favorite at home in the playoffs, he is 14-3 straight-up and 8-8-1 ATS in those games.
    New England, with Brady, is 4-2 straight-up against the AFC West all-time in the postseason and 2-3-1 against-the-spread.
    The Patriots haven't lost to the Chiefs in New England since 1990 and are 6-1 straight-up all time at home vs. Kansas City (3-4 ATS).
    PIT +7 @ DEN As an underdog in the playoffs, Ben Roethlisberger has gone 3-2 ATS (2-3 straight-up).
    Roethlisberger has been a touchdown or greater underdog once in the postseason and he won that game outright (21-18) vs. the Colts in 2005-06.
    The Steelers have covered five straight as touchdown or greater dogs in the playoffs.
    Pittsburgh is 4-2 ATS (3-3 straight-up) all-time vs. Denver in the playoffs, though the last they met Tim Tebow beat the Steelers with an 80-yard touchdown pass on the first play in overtime.
    SEA +3 @ CAR Russell Wilson improved his playoff record to 7-2 straight-up with the win in Minnesota, but 5-3-1 against-the-spread.
    In Wilson's career, the Seahawks a road underdogs are 8-3-2 against-the-spread (6-7 straight-up).
    All-time, the Seahawks away from home in the playoffs are 3-11 straight-up and 6-8 against-the-spread
    Seattle has never lost to Carolina in the postseason: 2-0 straight-up and against-the-spread.

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