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    Fantasy Busts (08/07/14)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
    By John Ewing
    2014 fantasy football sleepers, busts and breakout players.



    Fantasy season is upon us and owners are always looking for an edge in their drafts. With that in mind, over the next few days we will provide our picks for 2014 sleepers, busts and breakout players based on PredictionMachine.com's 2014 Fantasy Football Rankings.

    Here is how we define each:

    Sleeper: A player not being drafted as a fantasy starter, but should be.

    Bust: A player drafted as a fantasy starter, but will disappoint.

    Breakout Player: A player we project to finish in the top five at his position, but is not currently being drafted like a superstar.

    Note: Average draft position (ADP) is a composite of rankings from ESPN and Yahoo. Be sure to use the new Fantasy Football Draft Machine for an additional edge in all your drafts.

    Previously 2014 Fantasy Sleepers, now your 2014 Busts...

    Nick Foles
    2014 projections: 3,729.4 passing yards, 25.1 TDs, 15.0 INTs
    2014 ADP: 8th quarterback, 58th overall
    2014 PredictionMachine.com rankings: 16th quarterback, 76th overall

    Foles built up a lot of fantasy goodwill as one of the best waiver wire additions last season. As such, his average draft position has skyrocketed. Unfortunately, Foles success last year was built upon an unsustainable touchdown/interception (27/2) ratio. Remember, this is a run first team; Foles only attempted 30 passes in three of his eleven starts.

    Doug Martin
    2014 projections: 899.1 rushing yards, 159.7 receiving yards, 9.3 total TDs
    2014 ADP: 8th running back, 15th overall
    2014 PredictionMachine.com rankings: 20th running back, 37th overall

    Martin's 2013 season was cut short due to injury. If you extrapolate his statistics he was on pace to finish with 338 carries, 1,392 total yards and 2.5 touchdowns, which would have ranked him as the 19th best running back. Martin is being drafted like he will reproduce his rookie season, he is a low end running back two, not a first round draft pick.

    Percy Harvin
    2014 projections: 808.4 receiving yards, 6.1 TDs
    2014 ADP: 20th receiver, 53rd overall
    2014 PredictionMachine.com rankings: 32nd receiver, 99th overall

    Do you really want to spend a fifth round pick on a guy that has never posted a 1,000 yards receiving in a season and has only stayed on the field for 16 games once in his five year career?

    Marques Colston
    2014 projections: 938.0 receiving yards, 5.7 TDs
    2014 ADP: 30th receiver, 81st overall
    2014 PredictionMachine.com rankings: 34th receiver, 107th overall

    Why draft Colston in the 8th round when you can get his teammate, Brandin Cooks, in the 12th with the same level of production?


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