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    World Cup Odds (06/27/14)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
    By John Ewing
    2014 World Cup Round of 16 – updated odds to win. Has anything changed after Group play? Odds courtesy of Bovada.lv.



    As we prepare for the knockout stage of the World Cup, we take a moment to reflect on the updated Cup win odds for the Round of 16.

    The World Cup win odds for some teams, specifically those not expected to advance out of their respective groups, have decreased drastically. Costa Rica, for example, was 1000/1 to win it all before the World Cup began to win the tournament. After besting Uruguay, Italy and England to win Group D, the "Ticos" odds have decreased to 40/1.

    Of the remaining teams, half have seen their odds to win reduced by 50 percent or more.

    Still, the teams at the top remain the same. Brazil was the favorite before the tournament began and remains so entering the Round of 16.

    It is fun to cheer for the underdog and, after inspiring performances, you may be tempted to bet on one of the long shots that made it out of group play. But before you do, here are a few stats that may change your mind.

    Since 1986, no team has won the World Cup with higher than 10/1 pre-tournament odds. In fact, no team has reached the World Cup Final with higher than 20/1 odds in that span. (Statistics courtesy of Evan Abrams.) The only teams remaining that started with odds of 20/1 or shorter in the World Cup are Brazil, Argentina, Germany and Spain. Netherlands and France both have updated odds below the 10/1 threshold, yet both of their pre-tournament odds were 25/1.

    Odds to win the World Cup

    Team Pre-Tournament Round of 16
    Brazil 3/1 3/1
    Argentina 4/1 4/1
    Germany 11/2 4/1
    Netherlands 25/1 7/1
    France 25/1 8/1
    Colombia 33/1 16/1
    Belgium 18/1 20/1
    Mexico 125/1 25/1
    Chile 40/1 33/1
    Costa Rica 1000/1 40/1
    Uruguay 25/1 40/1
    USA 100/1 50/1
    Greece 200/1 100/1
    Switzerland 125/1 100/1
    Algeria 1000/1 200/1
    Nigeria 250/1 200/1

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