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    NFL: Pass, Rush, Rec Odds (08/12/14)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
    By John Ewing
    NFL Player Props: which player will lead the league in passing, rushing, and receiving yards? Lines courtesy of

    You can happily wager on over/under win totals, futures picks, and projected scores for every NFL game. Odds are, if you like those wagers then you'll like these NFL player props. Below we look at the odds for which players will lead the league in passing, rushing, and receiving yards.

    For all of our player projections including Top 400 Fantasy Rankings, click here.

    Passing Leader

    Odds on Favorite: Drew Brees – 11/4
    Projected stats: 4,858.3 passing yards, 37.2 TDs, 15.9 INTs

    Brees was the favorite last year and is the co-favorite this season with Peyton Manning. The Saints' quarterback has won the passing title in two of the last three years and three of the last six. Brees has also topped 5,000 yards passing in three straight years (an NFL record) and in four of the last six seasons.

    Projected Passing Leader: Peyton Manning – 11/4
    Projected stats: 5,036.9 passing yards, 44.8 TDs, 16.8 INTs

    We do not expect Manning to have another record-breaking season. In fact, we project regression. When you pass for 5,477 yards in a season, a little regression will not hurt you. In 50,000 simulations, Manning is the only quarterback projected to throw for more than 5,000 yards.

    Fun Fact: Last year Joe Flacco, Michael Vick, Mark Sanchez and Josh Freeman all had odds to lead the NFL in passing yards. Unsurprisingly, they are not listed with odds this season.

    Player Odds
    Drew Brees 11/4
    Peyton Manning 11/4
    Aaron Rodgers 7/1
    Matthew Stafford 15/2
    Tom Brady 12/1
    Matt Ryan 16/1
    Andrew Luck 18/1
    Jay Cutler 20/1
    Tony Romo 20/1
    Philip Rivers 22/1
    Nick Foles 25/1
    Eli Manning 33/1
    Ben Roethlisberger 66/1
    Carson Palmer 66/1
    Robert Griffin III 75/1
    Andy Dalton 100/1
    Josh McCown 100/1
    Matt Schaub 100/1
    Russell Wilson 100/1
    Ryan Tannehill 100/1
    Sam Bradford 100/1
    Cam Newton 150/1
    Colin Kaepernick 150/1
    Johnny Manziel 150/1
    Alex Smith 250/1

    Rushing Leader

    Odds on Favorite: Adrian Peterson – 4/1
    Projected stats: 1,387.9 rushing yards, 16.8 rushing TDs

    5th (2013), 1st (2012), 18th (2011), 6th (2010), 5th (2009), 1st (2008) and 2nd (2007). That is how Peterson has finished among all backs in rushing yards during each of his seven years as a pro. All Day has finished in the top five in five of seven years with his worst finish being in 2011 when he missed four games with a knee injury. The Vikings' franchise player is the most consistent back in the league.

    Projected Rushing Leader: Eddie Lacy – 16/1
    Projected stats: 1,453.0 rushing yards, 11.7 rushing TDs

    The reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year finished 8th among rushing leaders last season. Lacy carried the Packers while Aaron Rodgers was out with a broken clavicle. With a full season from Rodgers, Lacy should see fewer men in the box, opening up bigger holes for the talented back.

    Player Odds
    Adrian Peterson 4/1
    LeSean McCoy 9/2
    Jamaal Charles 7/1
    Marshawn Lynch 12/1
    Alfred Morris 16/1
    Arian Foster 16/1
    Eddie Lacy 16/1
    Matt Forte 18/1
    Doug Martin 20/1
    Zac Stacy 20/1
    DeMarco Murray 25/1
    Montee Ball 25/1
    C.J. Spiller 33/1
    Chris Johnson 33/1
    Giovani Bernard 33/1
    Ryan Mathews 40/1
    Andre Ellington 50/1
    Le'Veon Bell 50/1
    Stevan Ridley 50/1
    Toby Gerhart 50/1
    Ben Tate 66/1
    Bishop Sankey 66/1
    Trent Richardson 66/1
    Frank Gore 75/1
    Rashad Jennings 75/1
    Joique Bell 100/1
    Maurice Jones-Drew 100/1
    Ray Rice 100/1
    Reggie Bush 100/1
    Steven Jackson 100/1

    Receiving Leader

    Odds on Favorite: Calvin Johnson – 12/5
    Projected stats: 1,606.6 receiving yards, 12 receiving TDs

    Johnson finished third in receiving yards in 2013 despite playing with a nagging knee injury that cost him two games. A healthy Megatron is our projected receiving leader; the eighth year pro is the only receiver we predict will top 1,500 yards receiving.

    Other Notable Receivers: Antonio Brown 20/1 and Vincent Jackson 33/1

    These longshots are just two of five receivers projected to top 1,400 receiving yards. Brown finished second last year in receiving and is projected to have 1,439.3 yards and 6.5 touchdowns. Jackson finished in the top 15 in 2013; the Buccaneer is projected to have 1,433.4 receiving yards and 6.1 touchdowns.

    Player Odds
    Calvin Johnson 12/5
    Dez Bryant 7/1
    Demaryius Thomas 15/2
    Julio Jones 15/2
    A.J. Green 16/1
    Brandon Marshall 16/1
    Alshon Jeffery 20/1
    Antonio Brown 20/1
    Andre Johnson 25/1
    Jordy Nelson 28/1
    Jimmy Graham 33/1
    Pierre Garcon 33/1
    Vincent Jackson 33/1
    Larry Fitzgerald 40/1
    T.Y. Hilton 40/1
    Victor Cruz 40/1
    Cordarrelle Patterson 50/1
    DeSean Jackson 50/1
    Emmanuel Sanders 50/1
    Jeremy Maclin 50/1
    Julian Edelman 50/1
    Keenan Allen 50/1
    Randall Cobb 50/1
    Roddy White 50/1
    Torrey Smith 50/1
    Mike Wallace 66/1
    Wes Welker 66/1
    Marques Colston 75/1
    Michael Crabtree 75/1
    Michael Floyd 75/1
    Dwayne Bowe 100/1
    Eric Decker 100/1
    Golden Tate 100/1
    Hakeem Nicks 100/1
    Kendall Wright 100/1
    Mike Evans 100/1
    Percy Harvin 100/1
    Reggie Wayne 100/1
    Rob Gronkowski 100/1
    Sammy Watkins 100/1

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