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    NFL Trends Week 7 (10/15/14)

    By John Ewing Director of Research and Analytics @johnewing
    NFL Week 7 betting trends utilizing the Trend Machine.

    Trend Machine FREE trial - for access for one week of the Trend Machine click here.

    There is incredible power in understanding history. Though not predictive in nature, understanding how teams, players, leagues and markets have reacted to various scenarios for over 35 years and more than 9,000 games - as is the case with the information available in the Trend Machine for the NFL - is a tremendous supplement to any analysis of an upcoming matchup.

    Each week we will provide trends for the upcoming NFL games, some will be team specific, others situational – how often a team covers against-the-spread after covering three games in a row.

    Interested in additional trends? Check out the Trend Machine!

    Week 7 – Situational Trends

    Since 1986, teams that tied the previous week and are on the road are: 9-13 (41% ATS).

    • Games Matching this Criteria: Bengals (+3) @ Colts and Panthers (+7) @ Packers.

    Since 2004, teams that have won 5 games in a row and are at home are: 15-21-2 (42% ATS).

    • Games Matching this Criteria: Chargers (-4) vs. Chiefs and Cowboys (-6) vs. Giants.

    All-time, teams that have lost 5 games in a row and are home dogs are: 56-43 (57% ATS).

    • Games Matching this Criteria: Raiders (+3.5) vs. Cardinals.

    Access to a trial of the Trend Machine, which now also includes college football, college basketball and the NBA in addition to the NFL, is free to all this week (October 16-22). Full access to the Trend Machine that also allows for viewing results of all games is available year round at just $49.95. Get FREE trial access here.

    NFL Trends – Week 7
    Note: In our data "All-time" goes back to 1978 or when the team joined the league.

    Team Spread Trend
    AZ -3.5 @ OAK All-time, the Cardinals as road favorites are 25-19-1 (57% ATS).
    ATL +7 @ BAL Since 2008, the Matt Ryan era, the Falcons as dogs of 7 or more points are 1-11 (8%) straight-up.
    BAL -7 vs ATL Since 2008, when Joe Flacco became the starter, the Ravens as home favorites of 7 points or more are 9-13-1 (41% ATS).
    BUF -5.5 vs. MIN All-time, the Bills as home favorites are 107-85-4 (56% ATS).
    CAR +7 @ GB All-time, teams that tied and are dogs of 7 or more points are 3-5 (38% ATS).
    CHI -3.5 vs. MIA Since 2009, the Jay Cutler era, the Bears as home favorites of 3 or more points are 10-14-2 (42% ATS).
    CIN +3 @ IND All-time, teams that tied the previous week and are on the road are 9-12 (43% ATS).
    CLE -5.5 @ JAX Since 2000, the Browns as road favorites are 6-2 (75% ATS). The last time the Browns were favorites of 5 or more points on the road was 1995.
    DAL -6 vs. NYG Since 2005, the Tony Romo era, the Cowboys against the Giants are 7-12 (37% ATS).
    DEN -6.5 vs. SF Since 2012, the Peyton Manning era, the Broncos as favorites of 7 or fewer points are 12-4-2 (75% ATS).
    DET -3 vs. NO Since 2011, Matthew Stafford has started every game, the Lions as home favorites of 3 or more points are 7-12 (37% ATS).
    GB -7 vs. CAR Since 2008, the Aaron Rodgers era, the Packers as home favorites of 7 or more points are 17-11-1 (61% ATS).
    HOU +3.5 @ PIT All-time, teams that are dogs in Pittsburgh are 112-142-6 (44% ATS).
    IND -3 vs. CIN Since 2012, the Andrew Luck era, the Colts as favorites of 3 or more points are 12-6-1 (67% ATS).
    JAX +5.5 vs. CLE All-time, the Jaguars as home dogs are 28-35-1 (44% ATS). Historically, all home dogs are 53% ATS.
    KC +4 @ SD All-time, teams that have covered the spread 4 straight games and are road dogs of 3 or more points are 40-49-5 (45% ATS).
    MIA +3.5 @ CHI Since 2012, the Ryan Tannehill era, the Dolphins as dogs of 3 or more points are 8-5-2 (62% ATS).
    MIN +5.5 @ BUF All-time, the Vikings against the AFC East are 14-21 (40% ATS).
    NE -9.5 vs. NYJ Since 2001, the Tom Brady era, the Patriots as favorites of 9 or more points are 25-35-1 (42% ATS).
    NO +3 @ DET Since 2006, the Drew Brees era, in Saints games following a bye the over is 7-1 (88% over).
    NYG +6 @ DAL In the last 20 meetings between Dallas and New York, the Giants are 13-7 (65% ATS).
    NYJ +9.5 @ NE Since 2004, the Jets as road dogs of 9 or more points are 11-5-1 (69% ATS).
    OAK +3.5 vs. AZ Since 2004, the Raiders as home dogs are 17-31-1 (35% ATS). Oakland has been a home dog in 60% of its games since 2004.
    PIT -3.5 vs. HOU Since 2004, the Ben Roethlisberger era, the Steelers as home favorites of 3 or more points are 40-33-1 (55% ATS).
    SD -4 vs. KC Since 2006, the Philip Rivers era, the Chargers as home favorites of 3 or more points are 32-23-1 (58% ATS).
    SF +6.5 @ DEN Since 2011, the Jim Harbaugh era, the 49ers as underdogs are 6-3-2 (67% ATS).
    SEA -7 @ STL Since 2012, the Russell Wilson era, following a loss the Seahawks are 9-1 straight-up and 8-2 (80% ATS).
    STL +7 vs SEA All-time, the Rams as home dogs of 3 or more points are 30-52-1 (37% ATS).
    TEN +5.5 @ WAS Since 2004, the Titans as road dogs of 5 or more points are 15-19-1 (44% ATS).
    WAS -5.5 vs. TEN All-time, teams that have lost four games in a row and are home favorites are 45-56-1 (45% ATS).

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    NFL Line Movement (10/17/14)
    ATS Results after Tie (10/14/14)
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