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    NFL Trends Week 2 (09/10/14)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
    By John Ewing
    NFL Week 2 betting trends utilizing the Trend Machine.


    There is incredible power in understanding history. Though not predictive in nature, understanding how teams, players, leagues and markets have reacted to various scenarios for over 35 years and more than 9,000 games - as is the case with the information available in the Trend Machine for the NFL - is a tremendous supplement to any analysis of an upcoming matchup.

    Each week we will provide trends for the upcoming NFL games, some will be team specific, others situational – such as how often a team covers against-the-spread after covering three games in a row.

    Interested in additional trends? Check out the Trend Machine!

    Week 2 – Situational Trends

    In the last 10 years, teams that covered the spread the previous week by 7 or more points and are favored the next week are: 244-268-14 (47% ATS).

    • Games Matching this Criteria: Bengals (-5) vs. Falcons, Titans (-3.5) vs. Cowboys.

    All-time, teams that lose by 21 or more points and are underdogs the following week are: 328-244-18 (57% ATS).

    • Games Matching this Criteria: Rams (+5.5) @ Buccaneers, Giants (+2) vs. Cardinals

    All-time, teams that win by 21 or more points and are underdogs the following week are: 188-217-14 (46% ATS).

    • Games Matching this Criteria: Vikings (+3.5) vs. Patriots

    All-time in Week 2, favorites of 3 or more points are: 185-212-16 (47% ATS)

    • Game Matching this Criteria: All favorites except Dolphins (-1.5) vs. Bills and Cardinals (-2.5) vs. Giants.

    NFL Trends - Week 2

    Team Spread Trend
    Arizona -2.5 @ NYG All-time, Arizona as a road favorite of less than 3 points is 21-11-1 (66% ATS).
    Atlanta +5 @ CIN In the Matt Ryan era, when Atlanta is coming off a win and an ATS cover, the Falcons are 10-7 (59% ATS).
    Baltimore -2.5 vs. PIT All-time, Baltimore coming off a loss is 41-31-3 (57% ATS).
    Buffalo +1 vs. MIA All-time, Buffalo as a home underdog against an AFC East foe is 10-34 (23%) straight-up.
    Carolina -3 vs. DET In the Cam Newton era, Carolina as a home favorite is 10-4 (71% ATS).
    Chicago +7 @ SF All-time, Chicago following a loss and as a road dog of 7 or more points is 4-14 (22%) straight-up.
    Cincinnati -5 vs. ATL In the Andy Dalton era, Cincinnati as a home favorite of 3 or more points is 10-5-1 (67% ATS).
    Cleveland +6 vs. NO In the last 10 years, Cleveland as home dogs of 6 or more points are 10-8 (56% ATS).
    Dallas +3.5 @ TEN Since 2006, when Tony Romo became the starter, Dallas as road underdogs are 17-13 (57% ATS).
    Denver -13 vs. KC Peyton Manning as a Bronco, is 4-1 (80% ATS) as a 13 or more point favorite. As a Colt he was 7-9 (44% ATS) as a 13 or more point favorite.
    Detroit +3 @ CAR Since 2011, Matthew Stafford has started all 16 games each season, Detroit has won four games by 21 or more points, the Lions are 0-4 ATS the following week.
    Green Bay -8 vs. NYJ In the Aaron Rodgers era, Green Bay as a home favorite of 8 or more points is 13-7-1 (65% ATS).
    Houston -3 @ OAK All-time, Houston following a 10 or more point win is 14-18-2 (44% ATS).
    Indianapolis -3 vs. PHI Since Andrew Luck became the starter, Indianapolis at home is 11-6 (65% ATS).
    Jacksonville +6 @ WAS All-time, as road underdogs of 6 or more points, the Jags are 13-49 (21%) straight-up.
    Kansas City +13 @ DEN All-time, Kansas City as underdogs of 13 or more points is 10-6 (63% ATS).
    Miami -1 @ BUF All-time, following a win and an ATS cover, Miami is 58-43-2 (57% ATS).
    Minnesota +3 vs. NE All-time, following a blowout win (+21 points), Minnesota is 17-23 (43% ATS).
    New England -3 @ MIN Since Tom Brady became the starter, New England is 28-13 (68% ATS) following a loss, 33-8 (81%) straight-up.
    New Orleans -6 @ CLE Since 2006, when Drew Brees became the starter, New Orleans as a road favorite of less than a touchdown are 17-12 (59% ATS).
    NY Giants +2.5 vs. AZ In the Eli Manning era, New York as an underdog 40-30-1 (57% ATS).
    NY Jets +8 @ GB Since Rex Ryan became the head coach in 2009, New York as dogs of 8 or more points is 6-2-1 (75% ATS).
    Oakland +3 vs. HOU In the last 10 years, Oakland at home is 27-52-1 (34% ATS).
    Philadelphia +3 @ IND In the last two years in the NFL, the over has went 16-12-1 (57%) on totals of 53 points or higher.
    Pittsburgh +2.5 @ BAL All-time, Pittsburgh, coming off a win and as a road dog the next week, is 26-19-1 (58% ATS).
    San Diego +5 vs. SEA All-time, San Diego as home dogs of 3 or more points is 26-32-2 (45% ATS).
    San Francisco -7 vs. CHI In the Jim Harbaugh era, San Francisco as a home favorite of 7 or more points is 8-4-1 (67% ATS).
    Seattle -5 @ SD In the Russell Wilson era, Seattle on the road is 11-6-2 (65% ATS).
    St. Louis +5 @ TB All teams coming off losses of 21 or more points and as dogs the next week are 328-244-18 (57% ATS).
    Tampa Bay -5 vs. STL All-time, Tampa Bay as home favorites of 3 or more points are 53-64-5 (45% ATS).
    Tennessee -3.5 vs. DAL All-time, Tennessee coming off a win and an ATS cover as home favorites in their next game are 8-21-1 (28% ATS).
    Washington -6 vs. JAX Since Robert Griffin III became the starter in 2012, Washington has never been a home favorite of 6 or more points.

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