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    NFL Draft Props (05/06/14)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics, @johnewing
    By John Ewing
    The NFL Draft begins Thursday and with all things NFL there are prop bets. Below we look at some of the more entertaining prop bets available to wager. All props courtesy of Bovada.lv.



    Johnny Manziel, Jadeveon Clowney, Teddy Bridgewater, whose name will be called first? There is a lot of uncertainty about the 2014 NFL Draft. Thankfully, we are just days away from Roger Goodell announcing the Texans' pick and the rest of the dominos falling into place. All of the guessing makes this year's prop bets even more entertaining.

    For all of our in-depth draft analysis click here.

    Player Props

    Draft Position – Johnny “Football” Manziel: Over/Under 5.5

    Why it will go under: Each team in the top five (Houston, St. Louis, Jacksonville, Cleveland, and Oakland) is still searching for a franchise quarterback.

    Why it will go over: The Draft is about misdirection, Manziel is the hot name right now but perhaps Teddy Bridgewater or Blake Bortles is the true target of the teams in the top five. It wouldn't be surprising if one of the top rated quarterbacks experienced an Aaron Rodgers like free fall.

    Draft Position – Sammy Watkins: Over/Under 4.5

    Why it will go under: Watkins is a unique talent that earned a 9.1 out of 10 in our impact scores. A score of nine or higher indicates a potential Pro Bowl player.

    Why it will go over: There are too many teams that need a quarterback and there is better overall talent available on the defensive side of the ball. Watkins is the sixth best player in PredictionMachine.com's Top 250.

    Draft Position – Michael Sam: Over/Under 125.5

    Why it will go under: Sam is the reigning SEC Defensive Player of the Year and totaled 11.5 sacks last season. The NFL is always looking for players that can rush the quarterback.

    Why it will go over: Sam is an undersized player for his position and any doubts a team had were confirmed with a disappointing combine.

    Positional Props

    How many QB's will be drafted in the 1st round? Over/Under: 3

    Why it will go under: There are only three quarterbacks, Manziel, Bridgewater and Boyd, that earn an impact score of eight or higher, indicating that they can be expected to start adequately as rookies. There are just not enough truly talented quarterbacks in this year's draft to expect more than three to be drafted in the First Round.

    Why it will go over: There are eight teams that have a top three need at quarterback. Teams cannot risk letting a franchise quarterback slip through the cracks.

    How many WR's & TE's will be drafted in the 1st round? Over/Under: 6.5

    Why it will go under: The general consensus among GMs seems to be that there is depth at receiver and tight end in this year's draft. Why spend a First Round pick on a receiver when you can find the equivalent player a few rounds later?

    Why it will go over: There are ten receivers/tight ends that earned grades of seven or higher in our analysis, meaning that they are at least better than replacement level and four should be expected to start and produce.

    Additional Prop

    Will Jadeveon Clowney be drafted 1st overall?
    • Yes: 1/5
    • No: 3/1
    The odds imply there is a better than 80 percent chance that Clowney will be selected with the first pick. However, Clowney only rates as the fifth best player in PredictionMachine.com's Top 250.
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