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    Conference Tournament Odds (3/12/13)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics
    By John Ewing

    A look at conference tournament odds, our projections for the most likely winners, and a search for value bets. Playable conference tournament picks are 116-73 (61% ATS) all-time. Gain access to all pick information, customizable Predictalator and Play Analyzer for only $9.95.

    Conference tournaments have been in full swing for a week now. Each tournament gives teams one last chance to improve their resume before Selection Sunday. For some teams this means winning a game or two but for others the only way in is to win the whole thing. For teams in the power conferences it is the mid-major upsets that worry them. So far five number one seeds in minor tournaments have lost, which means teams that may not have been selected for the Big Dance are now taking precious at-large bids. The most atrocious of these bid stealers may be Liberty with a losing record of 15-20.

    Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast (24-10) over Mercer (23-11)

    Big South - Liberty (15-20) over Charleston Southern (19-12)

    Colonial Athletic - James Madison (20-14) over Northeastern (20-12)

    MAAC – Iona (20-13) over Manhattan (14-18)

    Sun Belt – Western Kentucky (20-15) over FIU (18-14)

    The power conferences begin their tournaments this week. Below we look at each tournament, using the new Bracket Simulator, and simulate the tournament starting with the most likely quarterfinals. From there we look for some value in the future odds for each tournament winner.

    To determine if a team has value we look at what their current odds are to win the conference tournament and compare that to our projected odds that they win the tournament. For example, Miami is listed at 2/1 to win the ACC tournament, in order for us to feel comfortable wagering on the Hurricanes they would need to win the tournament 33.3% (which is 1/(1+2)) of the time. We project Miami to win it all 18.5% of the time meaning there is not value betting them at 2/1 odds.

    Note: The percentages listed below represent the team's likelihood of advancing to that round.

    ACC

    When: Thursday (first round); Friday (quarterfinals); Saturday (semifinals); Sunday (championship)

    Where: Greensboro Coliseum in Greensboro, N.C.

    Teams currently projected in the tournament: Duke, NC State, UNC, Miami

    Teams with work left to do: Virginia, Maryland

      ACC Quarterfinals Semifinals Championship Odds Odds Needed
    1 Miami 70.9 39.0 18.5 2-1 33.3
    8 Boston College 29.1 10.2 3.1 60-1 1.6
    4 Virginia 49.4 25.5 11.5 7-1 12.5
    5 NC State 50.6 25.5 11.8 4-1 20.0
    3 UNC 68.6 31.9 17.3 4-1 20.0
    6 Florida State 31.5 8.8 3.5 30-1 3.2
    2 Duke 68.6 43.7 28.0 5-6 45.5
    7 Maryland 31.4 15.7 6.6 25-1 3.8

    Teams with value: Boston College, Florida State, and Maryland

    Big 12

    When: Wednesday (first round); Thursday (quarterfinals); Friday (semifinals); Saturday (championship)

    Where: Sprint Center in Kansas City, Mo.

    Teams currently projected in the tournament: Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Iowa State

    Teams with work left to do: Baylor

      Big 12 Quarterfinals Semifinals Championship Odds Odds Needed
    1 Kansas 70.6 41.0 23.7 2-3 40.0
    8 W. Va. 29.5 10.2 3.5 40-1 2.4
    4 Oklahoma 49.9 22.8 10.6 8-1 11.1
    5 Iowa St. 50.1 26.1 12.1 5-1 16.7
    3 Oklahoma St. 56.8 33.0 17.6 5-1 16.7
    6 Baylor 43.2 23.4 11.6 8-1 11.1
    2 Kansas St. 58.2 27.2 14.3 5-1 16.7
    7 Texas 41.8 16.5 6.8 18-1 5.3

    Teams with value: West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Baylor, and Texas

    Big East

    When: Tuesday (first round); Wednesday (second round); Thursday (quarterfinals); Friday (semifinals); Saturday (championship)

    Where: Madison Square Garden in New York City

    Teams currently projected in the tournament: Georgetown, Notre Dame, Louisville, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Cincinnati, Villanova

    Teams with work left to do: Providence

      Big East Quarterfinals Semifinals Championship Odds Odds Needed
    1 Georgetown 57.9 30.6 14.4 12-5 29.4
    8 Cincinnati 42.2 18.2 7.0 18-1 5.3
    4 Pittsburgh 51.1 27.1 12.2 6-1 14.3
    5 Syracuse 48.9 24.1 10.1 7-2 22.2
    3 Marquette 52.5 19.5 9.4 6-1 14.3
    6 Notre Dame 47.5 16.2 7.4 8-1 11.1
    2 Louisville 73.8 51.1 34.4 9-5 35.7
    7 Villanova 26.2 13.3 5.3 15-1 6.3

    Teams with value: Cincinnati

    Big 10

    When: Thursday (first round); Friday (quarterfinals); Saturday (semifinals); Sunday (championship)?

    Where: United Center in Chicago

    Teams currently projected in the tournament: Indiana, Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois

    Teams with work left to do: Iowa

      Big 10 Quarterfinals Semifinals Championship Odds Odds Needed
    1 Indiana 65.7 40.6 26.7 6-5 45.5
    8 Minnesota 34.3 16.2 6.6 18-1 5.3
    4 Wisconsin 45.9 19.3 8.9 8-1 11.1
    5 Michigan 54.2 24.0 12.7 13-5 27.8
    3 Michigan St. 63.5 35.2 18.4 3-1 25.0
    6 Iowa 36.6 17.9 6.3 30-1 3.2
    2 Ohio State 64.5 33.9 16.2 4-1 20.0
    7 Purdue 35.5 13.1 4.4 18-1 5.3

    Teams with value: Minnesota and Iowa

    Pac-12

    When: Wednesday (first round); Thursday (quarterfinals); Friday (semifinals); Saturday (championship)?

    Where: MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas

    Teams currently projected in the tournament: Arizona, UCLA, Colorado, California, Oregon

    Teams with work left to do: Arizona State

      Pac-12 Quarterfinals Semifinals Championship Odds Odds Needed
    1 UCLA 49.0 24.2 12.6 13-5 27.8
    8 Stanford 51.0 25.4 14.1 10-1 9.1
    4 Arizona 59.2 31.4 18.6 13-5 27.8
    5 Colorado 40.9 19.1 9.5 5-1 16.7
    3 Oregon 61.5 33.2 16.3 9-2 18.2
    6 Washington 38.6 17.8 6.7 12-1 7.7
    2 California 60.0 31.5 15.4 5-1 16.7
    7 USC 40.0 17.6 7.0 12-1 7.7

    Teams with value: Stanford

    SEC

    When: Wednesday (first round); Thursday (second round); Friday (quarterfinals); Saturday (semifinals); Sunday (championship)?

    Where: Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tenn.

    Teams currently projected in the tournament: Florida, Missouri

    Teams with work left to do: Kentucky, Tennessee, Ole Miss, Alabama, Arkansas

      SEC Quarterfinals Semifinals Championship Odds Odds Needed
    1 Florida 75.2 53.5 34.1 5-6 45.5
    8 LSU 24.9 10.2 4.0 50-1 1.9
    4 Alabama 46.9 15.7 6.9 12-1 7.7
    5 Tennessee 53.1 20.8 9.8 7-1 12.5
    3 Mississippi 47.7 25.1 12.2 15-1 6.3
    6 Missouri 52.4 29.1 13.8 9-5 35.7
    2 Kentucky 57.4 28.1 13.0 8-1 11.1
    7 Arkansas 42.6 17.8 6.4 12-1 7.7

    Teams with value: LSU, Ole Miss, and Kentucky

    Playable conference tournament picks are 116-73 (61% ATS) all-time. Gain access to all pick information, customizable Predictalator and Play Analyzer for only $9.95.

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