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    Pennant and Division Odds (04/01/2013)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics
    By John Ewing

    As the season starts we take a look at the current Pennant and Division odds for some value bets.

    To determine if a team has value we look at what their current odds are to win the Pennant and compare that to our projected odds that they win. For example, Tampa Bay is listed at 8/1 to win the AL, in order for us to feel comfortable wagering on Tampa Bay they would need to win the Pennant 11.1% (which is 1/(1+8)) of the time. We project the Rays to win it all 14%, meaning there is value in placing a bet at 8/1 odds.

    Detroit Tigers – current odds 17/4

    Last year: 88-74, 1st AL Central, Lost in World Series 4-0

    Odds needed: 19.0%, Projected odds: 20.0%

    Detroit had a problem last year and it was not their offense or pitching. Defensively the Tigers were abysmal ranking near the bottom of the AL in defensive efficiency. To correct this issue the Tigers added Torii Hunter (posted a 5.5 WAR last season) and they get a healthy Victor Martinez back. The rotation features Justin Verlander (ERA below 3.00 two years in a row) and Max Scherzer (2nd best strikeout rate in MLB). A strong lineup and deep rotation has the Tigers as our most likely team to make the playoffs at 80%. The only question for Detroit is their closer by committee.

    Additional Value Bets: Los Angeles Angels 9/2, Tampa Bay Rays 8/1

    Below are the rest of the odds for the AL Pennant.

    AL Pennant Current Odds Odds Needed Projected Odds
    Toronto Blue Jays 15/4 21.1% 11%
    Detroit Tigers 17/4 19.0% 20%
    Los Angeles Angels 9/2 18.2% 22%
    Texas Rangers 15/2 11.8% 9%
    Tampa Bay Rays 8/1 11.1% 14%
    New York Yankees 9/1 10.0% 8%
    Boston Red Sox 14/1 6.7% 3%
    Baltimore Orioles 16/1 5.9% 2%
    Oakland Athletics 16/1 5.9% 4%
    Chicago White Sox 20/1 4.8% 4%
    Kansas City Royals 28/1 3.4% 1%
    Cleveland Indians 30/1 3.2% 1%
    Minnesota Twins 50/1 2.0% 0%
    Seattle Mariners 50/1 2.0% 0%
    Houston Astros 125/1 0.8% 0%

    Cincinnati Reds – current odds 6/1

    Last year: 97-65, 1st Place NL Central, Lost in NLDS 3-2

    Odds needed: 14.3%, Projected odds: 18.0%

    The Reds look to repeat as the NL Central Champs by getting a full season out of Joey Votto (missed 51 games last year with knee injury). Cincinnati added some much needed on-base ability in Shin-Soo Choo at the top of their order and are looking for Jay Bruce to finally put it all together, more home runs and fewer strikeouts. Johnny Cueto at the front of the rotation and Aroldis Chapman in the bullpen anchor the pitching staff. A full season of Todd Frazier and super-fast Billy Hamilton could have the Reds back on top of the NL Central.

    Additional Value Bets: St. Louis Cardinals 10/1

    Below are the rest of the odds for the NL Pennant.

    NL Pennant Current Odds Odds Needed Projected Odds
    Washington Nationals 7/2 22.2% 21%
    Los Angeles Dodgers 4/1 20.0% 17%
    Cincinnati Reds 6/1 14.3% 18%
    San Francisco Giants 13/2 13.3% 12%
    Atlanta Braves 7/1 12.5% 10%
    Philadelphia Phillies 7/1 12.5% 4%
    St. Louis Cardinals 10/1 9.1% 10%
    Milwaukee Brewers 22/1 4.3% 3%
    Arizona Diamondbacks 25/1 3.8% 1%
    Pittsburgh Pirates 33/1 2.9% 0%
    Chicago Cubs 40/1 2.4% 1%
    New York Mets 40/1 2.4% 1%
    San Diego Padres 40/1 2.4% 0%
    Colorado Rockies 60/1 1.6% 1%
    Miami Marlins 75/1 1.3% 0%

    In addition to the Pennant odds below we provide the value bets for to win each division. Teams highlighted in green have value to win their division.

    AL East Current Odds Odds Needed Projected Odds
    Toronto Blue Jays 8/5 38.5% 28%
    Tampa Bay Rays 5/2 28.6% 36%
    New York Yankees 15/4 21.1% 20%
    Boston Red Sox 11/2 15.4% 9%
    Baltimore Orioles 13/2 13.3% 7%
           
    AL Central Current Odds Odds Needed Projected Odds
    Detroit Tigers 2/5 71.4% 64%
    Chicago White Sox 6/1 14.3% 22%
    Kansas City Royals 6/1 14.3% 6%
    Cleveland Indians 8/1 11.1% 7%
    Minnesota Twins 15/1 6.3% 1%
           
    AL West Current Odds Odds Needed Projected Odds
    Los Angles Angels 2/3 59.9% 49%
    Texas Rangers 9/4 30.8% 25%
    Oakland Athletics 5/1 16.7% 22%
    Seattle Mariners 15/1 6.3% 4%
    Houston Astros 50/1 2.0% 0%

    NL East Current Odds Odds Needed Projected Odds
    Washington Nationals 5/6 54.6% 53%
    Atlanta Braves 12/5 29.4% 25%
    Philadelphia Phillies 3/1 25.0% 15%
    New York Mets 15/1 6.3% 7%
    Miami Marlins 40/1 2.4% 0%
           
    NL Central Current Odds Odds Needed Projected Odds
    Cincinnati Reds 2/3 59.9% 61%
    St. Louis Cardinals 5/2 28.6% 25%
    Milwaukee Brewers 13/2 13.3% 6%
    Pittsburgh Pirates 10/1 9.1% 4%
    Chicago Cubs 20/1 4.8% 4%
           
    NL West Current Odds Odds Needed Projected Odds
    Los Angeles Dodgers 5/6 54.6% 45%
    San Francisco Giants 8/5 38.5% 36%
    Arizona Diamondbacks 13/2 13.3% 8%
    San Diego Padres 14/1 6.7% 3%
    Colorado Rockies 25/1 3.8% 8%

     

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