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    NFL Win Totals (05/20/13)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics
    By John Ewing

    A look at the 2013 NFL Season Win Totals posted by the LVH. We highlight some notable differences in totals and Game of the Year lines between different books.

    Note: 2013 NFL Team Season Win Totals can be bought as a separate package this season. Normal + plays for 2012 went 7-5-1 (58.3% totals) and all win total plays since 2011 have went 33-24-7, (57.8% totals). For analysis on the value of betting season win totals click here.

    The LVH SuperBook released their 2013 NFL season win totals Sunday afternoon. The LVH is following the lead of Cantor Gaming, which released their lines on Friday, and the Atlantis Sportsbook, which posted totals 10 days ago.

    Since Atlantis posted their season win total 10 days ago we have already seen some notable line movements. The biggest adjustment was on Green Bay. Atlantis opened the Packers at 12 wins but LVH has posted them at 10 wins. Green Bay is still the favorite to win the NFC North but many expect the division to be competitive. All NFC North teams are listed at 7.5 wins or better. In addition to a tough division, the Packers will play the competitive AFC North as well as marquee matchups against San Francisco and Atlanta.

    Other notable line movements:

    • St. Louis: Atlantis 5 wins, LVH 7.5 wins
    • Buffalo: Atlantis 5 wins, LVH 6.5 wins
    • Baltimore: Atlantis 9.5 wins, LVH 8.5 wins
    • Houston: Atlantis 11 wins, LVH 10 wins
    • Pittsburgh: Atlantis 10 wins, LVH 9 wins
    • Washington: Atlantis 9 wins, LVH 8 wins

    Anticipated bets:

    The LVH anticipates the public to bet certain sides of their lines and as such has adjusted the odds in their favor. We look a few teams and discuss why the LVH may expect wagering on a side.

    Dallas: Under 8.5, -155

    America’s team has not been to the playoffs since 2009, that alone will make the public weary on betting the over. The Boys have only managed to win eight games in each of the last two seasons. The offensive line is a question mark, allowing 46 sacks last season. The Cowboys were also 31st in the league in rushing yards/game. There is a lot of uncertainty in Big D.

    Arizona: Under 5.5, -150

    You will pay a premium to bet the under on the Cardinals this season. Even with Carson Palmer throwing passes to Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona finds itself in one of the most difficult divisions in football. It would be problematic for any team to get wins when you face the 49ers and Seahawks four times.

    Kansas City: Over 7, -145

    Alex Smith is a slightly above average quarterback but that is still better than last year’s combination of Matt Cassel and Brady Quinn. Plus the stability that Andy Reid brings to the organization and the fact that the Chiefs get to play the Raiders and Chargers four times could lead to some bets on the over.

    Bengals: Under 8.5, -130

    The Red Rifle and company won 10 games last season. A lot of that success was predicated on a 7-1 finish, which includes three wins over Kansas City, Oakland, and San Diego. Those three teams combined to win 13 games last season. Cincinnati does not have the pleasure of facing the bottom dwellers of the AFC West this season.

    All win totals are listed below. Denver, New England, and San Francisco have the highest totals at 11.5 wins. Jacksonville has the lowest posted total at 5 wins.

    Team Over Under
    Arizona 5.5 (+130) 5.5 (-150)
    Atlanta 10 (+110) 10 (-130)
    Baltimore 8.5 (-140) 8.5 (+120)
    Buffalo 6.5 (+115) 6.5 (-135)
    Carolina 7 (-110) 7 (-110)
    Chicago 8.5 (-120) 8.5 (even)
    Cincinnati 8.5 (+110) 8.5 (-130)
    Cleveland 6 (-130) 6 (+110)
    Dallas 8.5 (+135) 8.5 (-155)
    Denver 11.5 (+110) 11.5 (-130)
    Detroit 7.5 (-110) 7.5 (-110)
    Green Bay 10 (-110) 10 (-110)
    Houston 10 (-130) 10 (+110)
    Indianapolis 8.5 (even) 8.5 (-120)
    Jacksonville 5 (-130) 5 (+110)
    Kansas City 7 (-145) 7 (+125)
    Miami 7.5 (-135) 7.5 (+115)
    Minnesota 7.5 (-110) 7.5 (+115)
    New England 11.5 (+115) 11.5 (-135)
    New Orleans 9 (-120) 9 (even)
    NY Giants 9 (even) 9 (-120)
    NY Jets 6.5 (-110) 6.5 (-110)
    Oakland 5.5 (+120) 5.5 (-140)
    Philadelphia 7 (-110) 7 (-110)
    Pittsburgh 9 (-120) 9 (even)
    San Diego 7.5 (+115) 7.5 (-135)
    San Francisco 11.5 (+105) 11.5 (-125)
    Seattle  10.5 (-110) 10.5 (-110)
    St. Louis 7.5 (+120) 7.5 (-140)
    Tampa Bay 7.5 (-140) 7.5 (+120)
    Tennessee 6.5 (-110) 6.5 (-110)
    Washington 8 (-110) 8 (-110)

    In addition to posting season win totals on Sunday, the LVH also posted Game of the Year lines. The LVH posted some strong opinions in comparison to the Cantor lines. LVH posted lines that crossed key numbers (3, 7, 10 points). One example is the Jets @ Patriots. Cantor posted the game at Patriots -8 but LVH opened it at Patriots -12.5. The LVH posted the game with a  4.5 point difference in lines as well as a spread that crossed a key number. Below are some of the other notable games with differences in lines between the two sportsbooks.

    Game Cantor LVH
    Steelers @ Patriots Patriots -4 Patriots -9.5
    Saints @ Seahawks Seahawks -3.5 Seahawks -7
    Chargers @ Broncos Broncos -6.5 Broncos -10
    Seahawks @ Texans Seahawks -1 Texans -2.5
    Bears @ Rams Bears -1 Rams -2.5
    49ers @ Saints 49ers PK 49ers -3
    Saints @ Patriots Patriots -4 Patriots -7

     

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