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    NBA Draft Night Review (06/28/13)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics
    By John Ewing

    In case you missed it, the NBA Draft last night was crazy! Unexpected picks, trades, and general calamity were the order of the night. From a gambling prospective, how did the prop bets from last night fair? Below is what you missed.

    The 2013 NBA Draft lacked superstars, or at least that is what the experts told us. To make up for this perceived inadequacy the NBA franchises conspired to give us one of the most exciting drafts in recent memory. 24 trades were made last night, 17 players were traded once, 6 players were traded twice. This also includes the Celtics and Nets mega-trade involving Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce, more on this later. First, prop bets.

    Prop Bet Busters

    In a draft with so much uncertainty if you took the favorites to be selected in picks 1-5 you had a rough night gambling.

    • 1st Pick: The Cleveland Cavaliers select Anthony Bennett. Nerlens Noel was the favorite to go with the 1st Pick at 2/3 odds, Bennett did not even have odds to go #1.
    • 2nd Pick: The Orlando Magic select Victor Oladipo. Ben McLemore had the best odds to go 2nd overall but Oladipo at 3/2 was picked by the Magic.
    • 3rd Pick: The Washington Wizards select Otto Porter. Anthony Bennett was the favorite to go 3rd to the Wizards but was no longer available, so of course Porter as the second favorite (3/2 odds) was selected. This ignores the fact that the two favorites to go first (Noel) and second (McLemore) in the draft are still available.
    • 4th Pick: The Charlotte Bobcats select Cody Zeller. Like Bennett with the 1st Pick, Zeller did not have odds to be selected with the 4th Pick. Zeller’s over/under on draft position was 10.5.
    • 5th Pick: The Phoenix Suns select Alex Len. Once a favorite to be selected by the Cavaliers with the 1st Pick, Len slipped to 5th overall. Oladipo was the favorite to be selected at even money. McLemore, who was still available, was the second favorite. Len had the third best odds at 7/2.

    Keep Your Head on a Swivel

    That is what you have to do when you find yourself in a vicious cockfight. A quick review of last night's trades. 

    New Orleans/Philadelphia

    • Pelicans get Jrue Holiday, 42nd Pick
    • 76ers get Nerlens Noel, 2014 1st (protected 1-5)

    Minnesota/Utah

    • Timberwolves get Shabazz Muhammad and Gorgui Dieng
    • Jazz get Trey Burke

    Boston/Dallas

    • Celtics get Kelly Olynyk
    • Mavericks get 16th pick and two future second rounders

    Dallas/Atlanta

    • Mavericks get Shane Larkin
    • Hawks get Jared Cunningham, Lucas Nogueira, and Mike Muscala

    Denver/Utah

    • Nuggets get Erick Green and cash
    • Jazz get Rudy Gobert

    Golden State/Minnesota

    • Warriors get Andre Roberson and Malcolm Lee
    • Timberwolves get 2014 second round pick and cash

    Golden State/Oklahoma City

    • Warriors get Archie Goodwin and cash
    • Thunder get Andre Roberson

    Golden State/Phoenix

    • Warriors get Nemanja Nedovic
    • Suns get Archie Goodwin and Malcolm Lee

    Dallas/Washington/Philadelphia/Milwaukee

    • Mavericks get Ricky Ledo
    • Wizards get Glen Rice Jr.
    • 76ers get Arsalan Kazemi
    • Bucks get Nate Wolters

    Portland/Cleveland

    • Trail Blazers get Allen Crabbe
    • Cavaliers get two future 2nd round picks

    Memphis/Denver

    • Grizzlies get Kosta Koufos
    • Nuggets get Darrell Arthur and Joffrey Lauvergne

    Atlanta/Miami

    • Heat get James Ennis
    • Hawks get future 2nd round pick

    Indiana/Boston

    • Celtics get Colton Iverson
    • Pacers get cash

    MEGA-TRADE: Boston/New Jersey

    • Celtics get Keith Bogans, Kris Humphries, Gerald Wallace, Reggie Evans and three 1st round picks (Note: this is the reported deal but the details are still fluid)
    • Nets get Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, and Jason Terry

     

    “Even though the draft did not really produce anything worthy of adjusting our Championship odds, the trade between the Celtics and Nets definitely did have an impact. The Nets, who we had at 40-1 yesterday, have been cut down all the way to 10-1 and are now the second favorite behind the Heat in the East. Meanwhile, the Celtics losing their coach and two future Hall of Famers are up to 75-1, which is the highest pre-season odds they have been since I can remember.”

    -Kevin Bradley, Sportsbook Manager, Bovada.lv

    The blockbuster deal will not go into effect until July 10th when sign and trades can begin. The Celtics are in rebuild mode while the Nets are chasing a championship. 

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