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    2013 NBA Draft (06/26/13)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics
    By John Ewing

    Will Nerlens Noel be the 1st Pick in the NBA Draft? How many NCAA Freshman will be drafted in the 1st Round? A look at the 2013 NBA Draft Props, courtesy of Bovada.lv.

    This year’s draft is wide open. Uncertainty surrounds the top draft picks, which are held by Cleveland, Orlando, Washington, and Charlotte. The Cavaliers, who are trying to trade the 1st Pick, most likely will take one of the following players: Nerlens Noel, Alex Len, Ben McLemore, or Otto Porter.

    But who is the favorite to be selected with the 1st Pick and how will the rest of the draft play out? Below are the prop bets for the 2013 NBA Draft, courtesy of Bovada.lv.

    Top 5 Draft Pick Props

    Who will be the 1st Pick?

    Noel is the favorite to be the 1st Pick but he tore his ACL, had surgery in March, plus some off-court concerns have the Cavaliers looking elsewhere. Alex Len, a 20-year-old Ukrainian, is considered by some to be the top center in this year’s draft. However, injuries have sidelined Len from auditioning for teams and will keep him out of summer league.

    Player Team
    Nerlens Noel   2/3
    Alex Len 3/2
    Ben McLemore 6/1
    Otto Porter 10/1
    Victor Oladipo 12/1

    Who will be the 2nd Pick?

    Given Orlando’s need in the backcourt, Ben McLemore is the favorite to be selected with the 2nd Pick. The long shot to be taken second overall is Trey Burke, National Player of the Year. Burke made a name for himself in this year’s NCAA Tournament helping Michigan to the National Title game but a weak showing in the 2013 combine may keep him from being a top 10 pick.

    Player Odds
    Ben McLemore 7/5
    Victor Oladipo 3/2
    Nerlens Noel 2/1
    Trey Burke 9/1

    Who will be the 3rd Pick?

    Anthony Bennett is even money to be selected third overall by Washington. Bennett, a power forward from UNLV, can play both inside and outside. Otto Porter, the Big East Player of the Year, has the second best odds. Porter averaged 16.2 points and 7.5 rebounds per game for Georgetown this past season.

    Player Odds
    Anthony Bennett 1/1
    Otto Porter 3/2
    Nerlens Noel 4/1
    Ben McLemore 5/1

    Who will be the 4th Pick?

    This is where it gets interesting. Do you think Noel falls? If trades occur, then players slotted to be lottery picks could fall due to team needs. If you want to cheer against players this is a fun prop bet because you can get some long odds like Noel at 5/1.

    Player Odds
    Anthony Bennett  3/2
    Otto Porter 3/1
    Victor Oladipo 4/1
    Ben McLemore 5/1
    Nerlens Noel 5/1
    Alex Len 11/2

    Who will be the 5th Pick?

    Super athletic, crazy motor, elite defense, these are a few of the accolades heaped on Victory Oladipo. At even money, Oladipo is the bookmakers favorite to be selected with the 5th Pick, but given the high praise it would not be surprising to see him taken earlier in the draft.

    Player Odds
    Victor Oladipo  1/1
    Ben McLemore  3/1
    Alex Len  7/2
    Anthony Bennett 4/1
    Trey Burke 13/2

    Miscellaneous Props

    Each year the number of international players, players who did not play for a U.S. college, selected in the draft fluctuates. Last year no international players were selected in the lottery but in 2011 four players were taken. This year’s draft will lean more toward the latter, although the best player, Dario Saric, withdrew his name from the draft.

    How many non-NCAA players will be drafted in the 1st Round?    

    • Over/Under: 5.5

    Draft Position - 1st Non NCAA player         

    • Over/Under: 12.5

    Freshmen vs. Seniors, looks like the underclassmen will have more players taken in this year’s draft. Nerlens Noel, Ben McLemore and Anthony Bennett headline the freshmen class that has declared for the NBA Draft.  Eight freshmen have entered the draft. Thirty-seven seniors are listed on the NBA’s prospect list.

    How many NCAA Freshman will be drafted in the 1st Round?       

    • Over/Under: 6

    How many NCAA Seniors will be drafted in the 1st Round?          

    • Over/Under: 3

    Player’s Draft Position Over/Unders

    Each year a number of players are invited to the “green room” for the draft. The early list has Noel, Oladipo, Porter, Len, Bennett, McLemore, Burke, McCollum, Zeller, and Michael Carter-Williams attending.

    The prop bet I wish they had was which player will spend the longest time waiting in the green room to hear their name called. Since that is not an option we will take the next best thing, draft position for certain players.

    Player Pick
    Trey Burke 7.5
    C.J. McCollum 9.5
    Cody Zeller 10.5
    Shabazz Muhammad 14.5
    Mason Plumlee 17.5
    Kelly Olynyk 18.5
    Tim Hardaway Jr. 27.5

     

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