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    2nd Half Props (07/18/13)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics
    By John Ewing
    How many home runs will Chris Davis hit? Will the Pirates make the playoffs? Will there be a Triple Crown winner? MLB 2nd Half prop bets. Lines courtesy of Bovada.lv.


     
    The All-Star break is nearly over and baseball is gearing up for its second half, which is not really half of the season. Given that approximately 60% of games are in the books it might seem pretty obvious which teams will make the playoffs but each season there are surprise second half teams. Just as team's heat up or cool off so to do players. Which raises questions like; how many more home runs will Chris Davis smash?
     
    Below we look at the prop bets heading into MLB’s second half. Lines courtesy of Bovada.lv.
     
    Playoff teams
    Each day we simulate the rest of the MLB regular season 50,000 times with updated player and team's statistics. Currently, we project the following teams to make the postseason.
     
    AL Division Winners: Boston Red Sox, Detroit Tigers, Oakland Athletics
    AL Wild Card Winners: Tampa Bay Rays, Texas Rangers
     
    NL Division Winners: Atlanta Braves, St. Louis Cardinals, Arizona/LA Dodgers
    NL Wild Card Winners: Pittsburgh Pirates, Cincinnati Reds

    Notable odds:
    • We project the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Los Angeles Dodgers to both finish with a record of 83-79. One of these teams will win the division and make the playoffs while the other watches the postseason. Winning 83 games might be good enough to win the NL West title but it is well behind a Wild Card; Pirates (91 wins) and Reds (88 wins).
    • Pittsburgh is 1/3 to make the playoffs. We have them as the first wild card in the NL. At 1/3 odds, the bookmakers are implying that the Pirates make the playoffs 75% of the time, which would snap the Buccos’ 20 season losing streak.
    • The Toronto Blue Jays, preseason favorites to win the World Series at 8/1, have the longest odds to make the playoffs at 12/1. 
    2013 MLB Playoff Odds – Will the team make the playoffs?

    Team Yes No
    Arizona Diamondbacks 1/1 5/7
    Baltimore Orioles 5/2 1/4
    Boston Red Sox 1/7 4/1
    Cincinnati Reds 1/3 2/1
    Cleveland Indians 9/4 2/7
    Detroit Tigers 1/12 6/1
    LA Angels 7/1 1/14
    LA Dodgers 2/3 11/10
    NY Yankees 3/1 1/5
    Oakland Athletics 1/6 1/5
    Philadelphia Phillies 6/1 1/12
    Pittsburgh Pirates 1/3 2/1
    San Francisco Giants 6/1 1/10
    Tampa Bay Rays 2/5 17/10
    Texas Rangers 1/2 3/2
    Toronto Blue Jays 12/1 1/25
    Washington Nationals 2/1 1/3
     
    Miscellaneous Props
    Will there be a Triple Crown winner in the 2013 Season? 
    • Yes:  7/1       
    • No:  1/15     
    This comes down to Chris Davis. Can Crush continue blasting home runs? Davis is sitting on 37 dingers with a 35.6% home run to fly ball rate. A HR/FB rate of 20% is considered excellent and it will be hard for Davis to maintain his high ratio. But with a seven home run lead over Miguel Cabrera it is not all that surprising to see the odds at 1/15 (implies that there is a 93.8% chance of not occurring) that there is no Triple Crown winner.
               
    How many Manager's will be fired in the Second Half on the 2013 Regular Season?        
    • Over:  2 (EVEN, 1/1)
    • Under:  2 (-140, 5/7) 
    Six managers lost their jobs last season including: Jim Tracy (Colorado), Ozzie Guillen (Miami), Bobby Valentine (Boston), Manny Acta (Cleveland), Brad Mills (Houston) and John Farrell (Toronto).
     
    Managers on the proverbial hot seat in the second half: Charlie Manuel (Philadelphia – 6.5 games out of 1st), Ned Yost (Kansas City – 8 games out of 1st), Eric Wedge (Seattle – 13 games out of 1st), Mike Scioscia (LA Angels – 11 games out of 1st) and Ron Roenicke (Milwaukee - 19.5 games out of 1st).
     
    How many No Hitters will be thrown in the Second Half of the 2013 Regular Season?     
    • Over:  1.5 (EVEN, 1/1)
    • Under:  1.5 (-140, 5/7) 
    The No Hitter is not as rare as it used to be. From 2000 to 2007 there were 11 (including a six player effort by the Astros in 2003). From 2008 to this season there have been 22 (including a six player effort by Seattle in 2012).
     
    No hitters in the second half in the last five years: 2008 (1), 2009 (1), 2010 (2), 2011 (1), 2012 (2).
     
    Chris Davis Total Home Runs hit in the 2013 Regular Season?    
    • Over/Under:  59.5 (-115)
    Davis is on pace to hit 62 long balls. Baltimore has 66 games remaining which means he needs to hit 23 more four-baggers in order to bet the over or a little bit better than a tater every three games.

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