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    2013 Home Run Derby (07/10/13)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics
    By John Ewing

    Chris Davis and Bryce Harper headline the Home Run Derby but who is the favorite to win? Odds courtesy of Bovada.lv.

    Updates

    “Since Chris Davis hit his 37th Home Run last night we have been seeing increased action on him overnight and throughout the day and have now made him the favorite to win the Derby tonight at 11/4. Defending champ Prince Fielder, comes next at 15/4 in terms of money being put down while Michael Cuddyer has drifted to 12-1 and we cannot write a bet on him.”

    Kevin Bradley, Sportsbook Manager, Bovada.lv

    • Chris Davis is now the favorite to win the Derby after blasting a home run in each of his last four games. 
    • Carlos Gonzalez has dropped out of the contest due to a sprain in his right middle finger.
    • CarGo is being replaced by Pedro Alvarez, 2nd in HRs in the NL, tied with the third best odds to win.

    Everyone digs the long ball. The MLB Home Run Derby drew 6.9 million viewers last year, +3% increase from the 2011 Derby. Social media has pushed the popularity of the event as #HRDerby trended worldwide throughout last year’s contest. Here is a quick look at the power hitters participating in this year’s Derby and then each player’s odds to blast the most home runs.

    A note from Paul: With high juice (28.4% in total) and low limits it is not necessarily a wise move to bet on this prop.

    American League

    Robinson Cano: The AL captain is looking to rebound after getting booed in last year’s Derby. Cano hit zero homers and snubbed Kansas City favorite Billy Butler.

    Chris Davis: MLB-leading 33 home runs, on pace for 60, pretty much says it all.

    Prince Fielder: Won the event in 2009 and 2012, both in the state of Missouri. Unfortunately for Fielder this year’s event is not taking place in the Show Me State.

    Yoenis Cespedes: Just the fourth player not chosen for the All-Star game to compete in the Home Run Derby. The others were Rafael Palmeiro (2004), Hee-Seop Choi (2005) and Ryan Howard (2007).

    National League

    David Wright: The NL captain, does not normally tally the number of home runs associated with the Derby but in 2006 Wright hit 16 dingers in Round 1 before losing to Ryan Howard in the finals.

    Bryce Harper: Won the fan vote for the Home Run Derby, will be the second youngest participant, Ken Griffey Jr. was younger in his 1990 appearance by 39 days.

    Carlos Gonzalez: Leads the NL in home runs. Some might say this is due to playing in Coors Field but Gonzalez has actually hit more home runs on the road this season.  

    Michael Cuddyer: Had a 27-game hitting streak but this is a bit of a buddy pick as Wright and Cuddyer played AAU ball growing up. 

    Home Run Derby Odds, courtesy of Bovada.lv.

    Player Original Odds Current Odds
    Chris Davis (BAL)  15/4 11/4
    Prince Fielder (DET)  7/2 15/4
    Bryce Harper (WSH)  5/1 11/2
    Pedro Alvarez (PIT) N/A 11/2
    Yoenis Cespedes (OAK)  11/2 11/2
    Robinson Cano (NYY)  11/2 6/1
    David Wright (NYM)  15/2 9/1
    Michael Cuddyer (COL)  9/1 12/1
    Carlos Gonzalez (COL)  15/2 N/A

     

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