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    East Final Props (05/30/13)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics
    By John Ewing

    Which props are on pace to go over/under? 2013 Eastern Conference prop bets review.

    Before the Eastern Conference Finals began we provided a list of prop bets. Below we will review those props and see which ones are on pace to go over/under the line.

    Prediction:

    Before the series began we predicted the Heat would defeat the Pacers 87.4% of the time.

    With the series tied 2-2, the Miami Heat still advance to the NBA Finals but only win over the Indiana Pacers 78.0% of the time.

    Below are prop bets (courtesy of Bovada.lv) for the Eastern Conference Finals.

    Series Price

    • Miami Heat: 2/15 (-750)
    • Indiana Pacers: 21/4 (+525)

    There was no value in betting either side before the series began. The updated series price is Heat -470, Pacers +335. Based on our updated projection there is again no value in betting the Heat (in order to feel comfortable wagering at that price the Heat would need to win the series 82.4% of the time).

    There also is no value in betting the Pacers at +335, the odds needed in order to feel confident in making a wager on the Pacers series line are 22.9%. We give the Pacers 22.0% chance of winning the series. 

    Indiana Pacers vs. Miami Heat - Exact Series Result        

    • Indiana Pacers 4-0, 75/1     
    • Indiana Pacers 4-1, 33/1     
    • Indiana Pacers 4-2, 10/1     
    • Indiana Pacers 4-3, 15/1     
    • Miami Heat 4-0, 7/2       
    • Miami Heat 4-1, 9/5       
    • Miami Heat 4-2, 7/2       
    • Miami Heat 4-3, 15/4

    Prior to the series starting the most likely outcome according to the odds was a Miami victory in 5 games. At 9/5 the odds are implied that the Heat would win the series in five games 35.7% of the time. Well, that is out the window!

    Indiana Pacers vs. Miami Heat - Total Games in Series     

    • 4, 13/4    
    • 5, 3/2    
    • 6, 12/5    
    • 7, 12/5    

    The most likely outcome according to the odds was a total of five games being played in this series. With the Pacers winning Game 4 this series will go at least six games.

    Average Third Round Points Per Game - Paul George (IND)    

    • Over, 18½

    Before the series began George was averaging 19.1 PPG in the playoffs and against Miami this season he had only averaged 18.0 PPG.  

    After four games George is averaging exactly 18.5 points, which would be a push on this prop bet. George started the series strong scoring 27 and 22 points respectively in Games 1 and 2 but has only averaged 12.5 points over the last two games.

    Average Third Round Points Per Game - David West (IND)     

    • Over/Under, 16½

    Before the series began West was averaging 15.5 point per game in the postseason and against Miami in the regular season West had averaged 22.7 PPG.

    West is having a great series; he is currently averaging 18.5 PPG to go along with 8.5 rebounds. This prop is on pace to go over.

    Average Third Round Rebounds Per Game - Roy Hibbert (IND)

    • Over/Under, 9½

    Before the series began Hibbert was averaging 9.6 rebounds per game this postseason and against Miami in the regular season Hibbert averaged 8.0 boards a game.

    Heading into Game 5 Hibbert is averaging 12 rebounds per game. If this series ended in six games Hibbert could average 4.5 rebounds over the last two games and still push on this prop.

    Average Third Round Points Per Game - LeBron James (MIA) 

    • Over/Under, 26½

    Before the series began LeBron was averaging 24.0 PPG in the playoffs.

    LeBron is currently averaging 28 points per game in the series. If this series ended in six games LeBron could average 23.5 PPG over the final two games and this prop would still push.

    Average Third Round Rebounds Per Game - Chris Bosh (MIA)

    • Over/Under, 6½

    Before the series began Bosh had been averaging 8.3 boards in the playoffs (6.8 in the regular season). In three games against Indiana in the regular season Bosh only averaged 3.3 rebounds.

    Roy Hibbert and David West have dominated the boards and Bosh has only averaged 3.3 rebounds per game, well below the prop total. If this series ended in six games Bosh would need to average 13 rebounds per game in order for this prop bet to push.

    Average Third Round Points Per Game - Dwyane Wade (MIA)

    • Over/Under, 18

    Before the series began Wade was averaging 13.0 PPG in the postseason but in games against Indiana in the regular season Wade scored 23.3 points per game.

    Thus far in the series Wade is just averaging 16.8 PPG. If this series ends in six games Wade will need to average 20.5 PPG to get a push on this prop bet.

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