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    AL MVP/Cy Young (06/11/13)

    John Ewing, Director of Research and Analytics
    By John Ewing

    A look at the AL MVP and Cy Young odds and how they have changed over the course of the MLB season. NL MVP and Cy Young odds coming tomorrow. Lines courtesy of Bovada.lv.

    With a couple months of baseball in the books the awards watch begins with a quick look at contenders and pretenders for the AL MVP and AL Cy Young awards. Plus, current odds for all the top players.

    AL MVP

    Miguel Cabrera

    Preseason: 7/1, Current: 1/1

    Cabrera has finished in the top five in the AL MVP voting in each of the last four years due to his dominating offensive prowess. Once again Cabrera is leading the majors in nearly every significant statistical category. He is first in average (.361), third in home runs (18), and first in RBIs (69). At even money, Cabrera is a heavy favorite to repeat as AL MVP.

    Clay Buchholz

    Preseason: N/A, Current: 10/1

    Buchholz is one of two starting pitchers, along with Yu Darvish, that are listed with MVP odds. Buchholz leads the majors in ERA (1.71), wins (9), and is second in WAR (3.9). If Buchholz would win the MVP he would join a rare club. Only 24 pitchers have won the award with Justin Verlander the most recent in 2011.

    Carlos Santana

    Preseason: N/A, Current: N/A

    As of early May Santana’s stat line was .358/.455/.674 with 5 HRs and 13 RBIs. His odds to win the AL MVP were at 12/1 making him the seventh favorite to win. Even more impressive was that Santana was doing this as a catcher. However, in the last month Santana has not produced causing his stat line to drop to .283/.386/.483 with only three additional home runs.

    Albert Pujols

    Preseason: 17/2, Current: 33/1

    Last year was the first season in Pujols’ career that he did not finish in the top 10 in MVP voting. Many expected Albert to bounce back from a disappointing (considering the new contract) .285/.343/.516 season in 2012 but a left foot injury has hampered the former star all season.

    Current odds for top players.

    Team Preseason Odds Current Odds
    Miguel Cabrera (DET) 7/1 1/1
    Chris Davis (BAL) N/A 3/1
    Mike Trout (LAA) 6/1 7/1
    Clay Buchholz (BOS) N/A 10/1
    Robinson Cano (NYY) 8/1 10/1
    Adam Jones (BAL) 20/1 15/1
    Prince Fielder (DET) 15/1 25/1
    Evan Longoria (TB) 12/1 25/1
    Joe Mauer (MIN) 33/1 25/1
    Mike Napoli (BOS) N/A 25/1
    Adrian Beltre (TEX) 18/1 33/1
    Yu Darvish (TEX) N/A 33/1
    Albert Pujols (LAA) 17/2 33/1

    AL Cy Young

    Justin Masterson

    Preseason: N/A, Current: 7/1

    Masterson had a marvelous May going 4-1 with a 3.02 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. He has rocketed up the Cy Young odds list becoming the third favorite behind Buchholz and Darvish. Helping to propel Masterson’s rise has been his performance against former award winners. Masterson has beat Felix Hernandez, David Price, and R.A. Dickey this season.

    Mariano Rivera

    Preseason: 50/1, Current: 25/1

    Can Rivera win the AL Cy Young in his last go around? Rivera has never won the award but is making a case this season coming back from a knee injury that ruined a lot of fantasy player’s seasons (never pay for saves). Rivera is leading the majors with 23 saves; he only has one blown opportunity. If Rivera won he would be the first reliever to win the award since Dennis Eckersley in 1992.

    Ervin Santana

    Preseason: 50/1, Current: 50/1

    Santana’s odds are the same now as they were before the season began. However, his odds had risen to 18/1 after a 3-1 showing in April, so what happened? His ERA blew up, 2.00 in April, 4.72 in May. Also, he plays for the Royals who have managed two or fewer runs in four of his last six starts.

    R.A. Dickey

    Preseason: 10/1, Current: 250/1

    I’m not sure why Dickey still has odds, I guess because he is the reigning NL Cy Young winner. Dickey had a terrible start to the season seeing his ERA as high as 5.36 through his first three games. Strong performances against Tampa Bay (8 innings, 2 earned runs) and San Francisco (8.1 innings, 0 earned runs) reminded everyone why he won last year. But Dickey sandwiched those performances with three losses in which he gave up at least six earned runs, his ERA is 5.11 on the season.

    Current odds for top players.

    Team Preseason Odds Current Odds
    Clay Buchholz (BOS) 33/1 7/4
    Yu Darvish (TEX) 10/1 4/1
    Justin Masterson (CLE) N/A 7/1
    Matt Moore (TB) 33/1 10/1
    Justin Verlander (DET) 6/1 10/1
    Felix Hernandez (SEA) 10/1 12/1
    Hiwashi Iwakuma (SEA) N/A 12/1
    Max Scherzer (DET) 20/1 12/1
    Jon Lester (BOS) 33/1 20/1
    C.C. Sabathia (NYY) 12/1 20/1
    Anibal Sanchez (DET) N/A 20/1
    Chris Sale (CWS) 20/1 20/1
    Alex Cobb (TB) N/A 25/1
    Derek Holland (TEX) 33/1 25/1
    Mariano Rivera (NYY) 50/1 25/1
    Doug Fister (DET) N/A 33/1
    Hiroki Kuroda (NYY) N/A 33/1
    Joe Nathan (TEX) N/A 33/1
    Ervin Santana (KC) 50/1 50/1
    Bud Norris (HOU) N/A 100/1
    R.A. Dickey (TOR) 10/1 250/1

     

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